Trust Newcastle United to complicate matters.
Heading into the final day, the only certainty is that Newcastle will not be back in the Champions League next season. Yet Eddie Howe’s seventh-placed side could still qualify for either the Europa League or Conference League, or fall short of both.
With sixth-placed Chelsea hosting Bournemouth, Newcastle travelling to Brentford and Manchester United visiting Brighton, supporters will be keeping a keen eye on their respective results.
But what are the exact permutations? What are the financial ramifications of each scenario? And what are the benefits and drawbacks of being in and out of Europe?
Europa League
How can it unfold?
Newcastle finish sixth: Chelsea lose to Bournemouth, Newcastle beat Brentford and Manchester United lose the FA Cup final (how Manchester United fare at Brighton is irrelevant, unless they overturn a goal-difference deficit of 24).
When does the Europa League begin?
The English team who qualify would enter at the “league phase”. The first matchday of the league stage takes place on September 25 or 26, and runs until January 30, 2025. Most matches take place on Thursday evenings.
What is the format? How many games are there?
Newcastle would play a minimum of eight matches, four home and four away, during the single 36-team league stage. All eight fixtures will be against eight different opponents.
Should they progress directly to the round of 16 by finishing in the top eight, then there are three two-legged rounds before the final, meaning they would play 15 matches if they went the distance.
However, if they have to play in the knockout round play-offs after the group stage by finishing between ninth and 24th, they would face another two matches, meaning it would require 17 games to lift the trophy.
The final takes place on May 21, 2025, at the San Mames Stadium in Bilbao, Spain. The winners of the Europa League will automatically qualify for the 2025-26 Champions League group stages and play in the 2025 UEFA Super Cup.
Fabian Schar after scoring Newcastle’s fourth against PSG in October (Stu Forster via Getty Images)
How much is it worth to be in it?
Prize money in the Europa League is a fraction of the Champions League, but the additional income would still be consequential — and the remuneration from UEFA is increasing next season.
Europe’s second-tier tournament splits its revenue in an identical manner to the premier competition — prize money, broadcast income and coefficient-based payments — but the figures are significantly lower, even if the total paid out will reach €565million (£485m, $614m).
Being in the group stage is worth a minimum of €4.31m to each club. Beyond that, there are coefficient payments and performance-related bonuses.
Theoretically, a team winning the tournament could bank close to €40m in prize money. Newcastle made around €34m directly from UEFA during their 2023-24 Champions League campaign.
Newcastle would also generate additional matchday revenue from playing at least four home matches, and up to eight in total. The ticket prices Newcastle could charge would likely be lower than they were for the Champions League, however.
The club will also receive additional money from their sponsors for being in the Europa League, although those bonuses will be smaller than in 2023-24.
The benefits and drawbacks
Financially, Newcastle need European football to increase revenue and their scope to spend within the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR). Even if the Europa League does not offer the Champions League’s riches, it will still potentially allow them to spend more on signings this summer.
While the glamour is diminished, Newcastle can also develop as a club and become more acclimatised to continental competition. It will help Howe, his coaches and the players become more accustomed to balancing fixture congestion, travel, fatigue, squad rotation and increased international exposure.
For everyone, including supporters, it will continue the idea that (non-linear) progress is being made.
Alternatively, the Thursday-Sunday schedule is tedious and tiring, for players, coaches and supporters alike.
Newcastle have an outside chance of winning the Europa League but, as Liverpool discovered this season, it is very difficult to navigate successfully, especially when you face Champions League dropouts.
There is an argument to suggest the physical toll is simply not worth it.
Newcastle nearly did it against PSG in November (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
George Caulkin’s verdict: From their current position, this is the gold standard for Newcastle, finishing as high as possible and qualifying for a competition which offers more money and prestige. Newcastle’s Champions League adventure was brilliant and bruising; the intention has always been to learn and go again. For the players they already have and those they want to sign, Europe is a must. It shows that Newcastle are ambitious and moving forward.
GO DEEPER
One of those nights threatens to become one of those seasons for Newcastle
Conference League
How could it unfold?
Newcastle finish sixth: Chelsea lose, Newcastle win and Manchester United lift the FA Cup (and do not overturn their goal-difference deficit);
Or Newcastle finish seventh: Chelsea win or draw (or even lose), Newcastle equal or better Manchester United’s result, Manchester United lose the final; or Chelsea lose, Newcastle triumph and Manchester United win so heavily they overturn their goal-difference deficit of 24 and finish sixth themselves (then the final is irrelevant).
When does the Conference League begin?
The English entrant would join at the play-off round phase.
The two-legged play-off takes place on August 22 and August 29. Matches are played on Thursday evenings.
What is the format? How many games are there?
If Newcastle progress, they would advance into the single 36-team league stage.
Newcastle would play a minimum of six matches, three home and three away, during the group stage. All six fixtures will be against six different opponents.
Should they progress directly to the round of 16 by finishing in the top eight, there are three two-legged rounds before the final, meaning they would play 15 matches to lift the trophy.
However, if they have to play in the knockout round play-offs after the group stage by finishing between ninth and 24th, they would face another two matches, meaning it would require 17 games to go the distance.
The final takes place on May 28, 2025, at the Wroclaw Stadium in Wroclaw, Poland. The winners of the Conference League will automatically qualify for the 2025-26 Europa League group stage.
West Ham won the Conference League last year (Richard Heathcote via Getty Images)
How much is it worth to be in it?
Conference League prize money is around half that of the Europa League — although the remuneration from UEFA is increasing next season for all three tiers.
Europe’s third-level tournament splits its revenue in an identical manner but the figures are lower, even if the total paid out to clubs will reach €285m.
Being in the group stage is worth a minimum of €3.17m to each club. Beyond that, there are also coefficient payments and performance-related bonuses, which are lower than for the Europa League.
West Ham secured €22m in prize money when they lifted the trophy in 2022-23. Theoretically, the winner could bank between €25m-€30m in prize money next season.
Newcastle would also generate additional matchday revenue from playing at least one home match, and four if they reach the league, up to a maximum of eight. The ticket prices Newcastle could charge would likely be lower than in the Europa League, however.
The club will also receive additional money from their sponsors for being in the Conference League, although less than for the Europa League.
The benefits and drawbacks
The main plus side is that Newcastle, like West Ham, would have an excellent chance of winning this competition. Arguably, it is the most realistic route to the first post-takeover silverware.
An economic case can be made for the Conference League, too, even if the merits are less than for the Europa League.
What’s more, the development logic is even greater because Newcastle could look to build from the bottom level of European tournament and progress into the Europa League, before hopefully returning better equipped to the Champions League. Howe could rotate far more in this competition and hand minutes to promising youngsters such as Yankuba Minteh.
Minteh enjoyed his own European adventure with Feyenoord this season (Andy Buchanan/AFP via Getty Images)
For fans, trips to destinations they may never otherwise visit would be refreshing and exciting.
In terms of drawbacks, again, the Thursday-Sunday schedule is far from ideal, and the exertions may distract from the Premier League and domestic competitions. There is (small) risk some of Newcastle’s star players may even view playing in this tournament unfavourably.
There is a cost-benefit argument to be made for and against the Conference League, especially given the transformative effect qualifying for the Champions League again in 2025-26 could have.
Caulkin’s verdict: The next best thing. Everything above still applies, albeit Newcastle’s opponents may be less glamorous and their financial return less substantive. It is also a realistic opportunity to lift a trophy, which is not something to be sniffed at; the winners of the 1969 Inter-Cities Fairs Cup, which no longer exists, are still feted. It’s a grind, but Newcastle need to become hardened to that rhythm of travelling-playing-travelling.
No European football
How can this unfold?
Newcastle finish seventh: Chelsea win or draw (or even lose), Newcastle better or equal Manchester United’s result, but Manchester United lift the cup.
Or Newcastle finish eighth: Chelsea’s result is irrelevant, Newcastle lose or draw and Manchester United better their result (the cup final is irrelevant).
The benefits and drawbacks
It would be fitting, if galling, should this seemingly interminable campaign extend six days beyond Newcastle’s final match — and then they still walk away without anything tangible.
Given Newcastle’s injury-ravaged 2023-24 season, having only domestic competitions to focus on will aid them from a squad-depth perspective. Howe is adept at managing week-on-week and Newcastle’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League via the Premier League may actually increase.
What’s more, Howe can focus greater resources on the Carabao Cup and FA Cup as he aims to end Newcastle’s 55-year-and-counting wait for a trophy.
There are negative ramifications, though. Newcastle have sold a vision of being perennial continental qualifiers and although Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimaraes do not dream of the Conference League, not being in Europe at all could affect the club’s ability to keep stars and lure others.
Bruno Guimaraes after losing to AC Milan in December (Michael Steele via Getty Images)
As Howe looks to increase the quality of his squad, having fewer fixtures in which to rotate and keep players happy may become an issue.
Newcastle also must learn how to cope with the extra demands of European football, and a campaign or two in lower-tier competitions could really aid them.
The effect on PSR is also apparent. Newcastle have budgeted for multiple scenarios, but most include Europe. The likelihood is that Newcastle will miss out on (a conservative) £10m-£20m by not being in Europe.
Caulkin’s verdict: There is a certain logic to the argument that Newcastle could do without Europe, particularly if it is not the Champions League. Their squad is not deep enough to withstand the rigours of competing on four fronts, so would it not be better to recover and build before having another go?
But this is not how elite clubs operate. They have given players a taste and it is vital in reputational terms they demonstrate this is their natural home: come to Tyneside, tussle for trophies and play in Europe. As Howe said this week: “We want European competition, regardless of what it looks like. We need to be there as a club.”
GO DEEPER
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(Top photo: Eddie Howe with Newcastle staff and players after the 3-2 loss to Manchester United by Stu Forster/Getty Images)