The rise of Newcastle United from relegation threatened to Champions League elite has taken a big knock.
Eddie Howe’s side won’t play in Europe next season, which was the stated aim of players and managers for this season. It is the first real setback since the Saudi’s took over 31 months ago. It is the first bump in Howe’s reign after overseeing a spectacular revival of the Geordies last season.
Fans sang: “Europe again, ole, ole” after they beat Brentford to finish seventh in the league, and players took the plaudits in front of the travelling Toon Army, but it was premature.
Eighth-placed Manchester United’s FA Cup win clinched a Europa League place, and Chelsea, in sixth, go into the Europa Conference League. That leaves at least a £40million hole to plug in the budget for next season.
That’s what the club accounts say the Champions League was worth last season in prize money alone. Next season the sum raided by European football will be zero.
That could be partially offset by new sponsor deals including new kit supplier Adidas launching next month, but there will be ground to make up, tightening their numbers for FFP.
The deflating end to the season raises issues and questions that need to be answered for the next stage of development to happen.
Could Newcastle lose their best players?
The biggest risk of the summer. Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimaraes are title-winning, Champions League-elite. Proven in the Premier League and Europe.
A good transfer window would be to hang on to both of these superstars, no matter who else is signed. Arsenal love Isak, who bagged 25 goals this season, 21 in the League; stats not seen since Alan Shearer in 2004. He is worth £120m. Newcastle are talking £200m to put off buyers. Can the Gunners afford that? A fit Isak would help them overhaul Man City next season.
And could City go for Guimaraes? Their move for Lucas Paqueta is over. Bruno is the next best thing. That £100m clause, active in June, is no protection. He’s on the open market after that and City could bid lower.
The problem with the players comes when they know they can go from earning £150k a week or so at Newcastle, to £300k a week at a title contender. That’s £40m more over a five-year deal. Loyalty goes out of the window A sale of one, or both, solves any FFP issues and gives decent scope to reinvest, but is also a risk.
Howe says: “These ‘big names’ are the talk of everything but I don’t know what’s going to happen this summer. I can’t predict the future but whatever happens, we can fight, live again and create a slightly different team.”
Can Newcastle sign elite game-changing players?
Even Eddie Howe says not. They are not shopping in the same market as the top six. The ceiling for transfers seems to be around £55m paid for Isak and Sandro Tonali.
Howe is more likely to get £30m stars young, and develop them. They may not hit the ground running, instead needing to go through a fitness and tactical education before coming good. It means patience is needed.
The free transfers of Tosin Adarabioyo and Lloyd Kelly are lined up, showing the emphasis on value. Talk of injury plagued Dominic Calvert-Lewin being a target is arguably not an upgrade, and shows where Newcastle are. Jarrod Bowen is, but where does that leave Harvey Barnes. Is there scope for another £60 Tonali/Isak type signing this summer if no big star is sold?
Howe said: “We can’t sign ready-made elite players. We have to be slightly different to clubs we are in and around. The only frustrating thing for me is when the outside expectations aren’t linear with what is the reality of what you are working with.”
Is there pressure on ‘untouchable’ Eddie Howe?
Not yet. Finishing seventh, with a big injury list and Champions League football to play last term was a par for the course finish. Anything higher would have been rated as excellent. But there will be pressure for a good start next season.
The question is: when does being a manager who is building and improving become one who delivers? What constitutes delivery? When does the leeway and patience with steady progress turn into the need for some tangible success?
Howe knows the club inside out and is currently the best man for the job. But the job takes a toll. He looks much older than when he took over, and at times tired. He may need to evolve Newcastle’s style on the pitch, but also his personal managerial workload and intensity. Fans trust that he’s immersed in every detail, but we’d hate him to burn out. He also needs to enjoy the job more. He won’t find a club where he’s more respected and loved.
Howe says he can get more form the team with a week of preparation rather than flying around the continent. This will be worth points next season. Already fans are saying it is a chance to get back in the top four, with the team fresh and firing at weekends. The cups will also be huge. No Europe means Howe can throw his first XI at the Carabao Cup and FA Cup.
Are the Saudis still serious about making Newcastle great again?
We are told: Yes. But I have questions and challenges. Where are the Saudi mega sponsor deals to bolster finances? When is the new training ground happening? When is the St James’ Park upgrade happening, or a new stadium? Where is the investment in the wider region in jobs and industry?
All of this was promised, and seems to have stalled. Financial rules mean Newcastle can’t build quickly like City did. But the PIF owners have so many companies who could sponsor Newcastle to lever cash in, but not much has materialised yet.
The worry is Newcastle is a relatively small, yet high profile, investment by the PIF. Are they now distracted by buying up other sports? LIV golf, their own Pro-league, boxing, F1, tennis, to name a few.
Howe said: “They are very serious about it. I have seen no indication otherwise. The issue is, in those sports you can possibly invest whatever you want. Here you certainly can’t and I think that is the thing, and that is a talking point for everyone connected with football at the moment.
“The ambition is there, but you have to work within reality. And the reality is we are not No1 club off the pitch yet in terms of income, or No1 club in lots of areas. So for us to get there takes a lot of hard work.”
The awkward ownership reshuffle and pace of investment?
The more money the Saudis pump in – in the form of new equity – the quicker Amanda Staveley, the key decision maker, has her shareholding diluted.
She’s done a good job relaunching the club, with her upbeat, can-do style. The perfect front for a Saudi regime. But every time the 80pc owners, the PIF, inject cash, that has to be matched by the other shareholders. Staveley either doesn’t have, or chooses not to, inject her share. Instead it is put in by the Reuben family. Staveley’s shareholding has slipped from 10 per cent at the takeover to under six per cent. The Reubens are snaffling her stake by stumping up her share of the cash injections.
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