With a full field of 14 and a 4-1 morning-line favorite, there are countless directions for handicappers to go in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Europe runners have dominated most Breeders’ Cup races on the turf over the years, but interestingly they have not fared well historically in this event. Aidan O’Brien’s Meditate snapped an eight-year losing streak for Europe-based fillies when she scored in this race last year.
With five Europeans lined up in 2023, will they keep the momentum going? Or will a North America-based runner get the job done? Below I analyze the entire field for the Juvenile Fillies Turf, ranking the entrants from first to last.
1. Buchu, no. 3, 6-1. This daughter of Justify has dominated the competition in her last two starts and looks to be the real deal. She ran over a full second faster in the Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes than the males did in the Bourbon Stakes (G2) after making a wide, sweeping move turning for home. She has an excellent turn of foot and should run them all down late.
2. Carla’s Way, no. 9, 6-1. She looks to be the most dangerous of the Europe contingent. The Group 2 winner had wind surgery to help with breathing after her second start and has returned better than ever with two sharp efforts. She is proven around a turn and on firm turf and should be able to handle the distance after winning at seven furlongs last time out.
3. Content, no. 5, 15-1. Any horse with the combination of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore at 15-1 is worth a closer look, and this filly fits this race very well. She might not have as much class as her European counterparts, but she already owns a win going the distance and a win around a left-handed turn. If you throw out her two races on straightaway courses, her form brightens.
4. Porta Fortuna, no. 6, 5-1. Her credentials are the best of any runner in the field after capturing a Group 1 over a firm turf in Newmarket last time out. If she can handle the distance, she can win this race. But that is a big question mark as she has yet to race beyond six furlongs or around a turn.
5. She Feels Pretty, no. 11, 4-1. She has done nothing wrong in two starts, and her win in the Natalma Stakes (G1) was powerful. I do not think she has defeated much and her price is a little low, but it would be no surprise to see her emerge victorious.
6. Life’s an Audible, no. 8, 15-1. Todd Pletcher’s filly was every bit as good as Hard to Justify when running second to her behind a slow pace in the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2). At more than twice the odds of that runner, she is a good value with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard.
7. Les Pavots, no. 14, 8-1. She was last seen running third to the talented Opera Singer, who would have been favored in this race if she made the trip from France. She has shown class and ability, but she might be better over a softer turf course, and this post position will be tough to navigate.
8. Hard to Justify, no. 12, 6-1. Chad Brown knows what it takes to win this race, having won it five times already. This filly is 2-for-2, but she sat a perfect trip in the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2) and that does not appear to be a very strong prep. She certainly has a chance but will be overbet.
9. Gala Brand, no. 7, 12-1. She is very consistent as she has earned three straight 71 Beyer Speed Figures to start her career. Unfortunately for her, that figure is not fast enough to compete with the best of this group.
10. Austere, no 10, 12-1. This filly is tough to gauge. She won convincingly in her second start, but it came against a soft field with a perfect trip at Kentucky Downs. She might be this good, but it is more likely that she is a step below.
11. Laulne, no. 4, 15-1. Now in the care of Phil D’Amato, this invader from France likely will prove to be a solid horse on the California turf circuit as a 3-year-old. But at this point this race seems a bit too tough for this Group 3 winner.
12. Dreamfyre, no. 13, 15-1. This filly already is a graded-stakes winner on turf and dirt in both a sprint and a route. Those accomplishments are nothing to sneeze at, but this is a large class hike. She will make the lead and take them as far as she can.
13. Flattery, no. 2, 20-1. She was no match for Dreamfyre in the Surfer Girl Stakes (G3), and she likely will have bigger concerns to deal with in this race.
14. Buttercream Babe, no. 1, 30-1. She also exits the Surfer Girl Stakes (G3), which appears to be a weak prep race. She could not get by Dreamfyre and is a notch below the main contenders in here.