Thursday, September 19, 2024

Euro 2024 Fantasy: What the bookies’ odds say

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This four-week footballing festival is getting closer and closer, with 51 matches set to take place in Germany. But what are the bookmaker odds on teams reaching the Euro 2024 knockout phase?

For the official Fantasy game, this is important because getting through the group usually involves a combination of goals scored and clean sheets – both things we’re targeting in players.

GROUP A

Germany – Scotland – Hungary – Switzerland
To Qualify To Win Group
Germany 91.3% 63.6%
Switzerland 64.0% 13.7%
Hungary 59.3% 12.7%
Scotland 57.7% 9.9%

Hosts Germany will be hoping that an early victory can build a positivity that overcomes three consecutive big-stage disappointments. They begin at home to Scotland, who’ve not won at a major tournament since 1996.

In the last Euros, Hungary tried desperately to make it worse for the Germans. They twice took the lead in their final group game but Leon Goretzka saved many blushes. A rematch takes place on Matchday 2.

As for Switzerland, they’ve progressed to the next stage in each of the last five competitions.

GROUP B

Spain – Croatia – Italy – Albania
To Qualify To Win Group
Spain 87.2% 50.2%
Italy 78.4% 28.3%
Croatia 73.7% 18.1%
Albania 25.6% 3.4%

Meanwhile, reigning champions Italy haven’t even participated in the latest two World Cups and only qualified automatically here because of some late luck with a questionable refereeing decision. They’re alongside Spain and Croatia in this ‘Group of Death’.

La Roja are aiming for a record fourth Henri Delaunay Trophy but the Vatreni are seeking revenge for defeats in Euro 2020 and the Nations League final, where Zlatko Dalic’s side once again went deep into a tournament. They came third in the 2022 World Cup and were 2018 runners-up.

The fourth nation is Albania, taking part in their second-ever major competition.

GROUP C

Slovenia – Denmark – Serbia – England
To Qualify To Win Group
England 92.2% 64.6%
Denmark 71.9% 20.1%
Serbia 62.5% 10.0%
Slovenia 40.4% 5.3%

Based on attacking talent, England must be considered one of the favourites. Fantasy managers have the likes of Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden to pick from.

Last time, they denied Euro 92 winners Denmark from reaching the final, who were still recovering from the traumatic circumstances of Matchday 1.

Another reunion pits Serbia against Slovenia. Both are in their first Euros since 2000, where the then-Yugoslavia came from 3-0 down to salvage a Group C draw.

GROUP D

Poland – Netherlands – Austria – France
To Qualify To Win Group
France 90.2% 56.8%
Netherlands 78.4% 23.9%
Austria 57.5% 11.2%
Poland 42.6% 8.1%

Overall favourites France have reached three of the last four major finals. Functional under Didier Deschamps, they beat the Netherlands in both recent qualifiers and will be confident of doing so again.

Although the Dutch failed to reach the 2016 and 2018 summer events, they have good memories of tournaments in Germany. World Cup runners-up in 1974, their only international trophy was won there at Euro 88. Then again, their talent pool doesn’t currently go far beyond a strong selection of centre-backs.

A serious knee injury stops David Alaba from playing for Austria but he’ll still be there as an off-field captain. Expectations are low for Poland after finishing third in a relatively straightforward qualifying group but you can never totally rule out a Robert Lewandowski team.

GROUP E

Belgium – Slovakia – Romania – Ukraine
To Qualify To Win Group
Belgium 91.3% 61.5%
Ukraine 66.3% 17.8%
Romania 59.3% 11.8%
Slovakia 52.3% 8.9%

Poland’s Euro 2012 co-hosts Ukraine also had to go through the playoffs but, in fairness, they’d been stuck in a difficult cluster with England and Italy. They almost achieved automatic success, too.

Group E looks fairly even, as Belgium are in between generations and flopped at the 2022 World Cup. But Romelu Lukaku was the top overall scorer in qualifying with 14 goals. Both they and Romania remained unbeaten in their route to Germany.

Curiously, Slovakia’s head coach Francesco Calzona has been job-sharing with Napoli on a caretaker basis since February.

GROUP F

Turkey – Georgia – Portugal – Czech Republic
To Qualify To Win Group
Portugal 90.2% 66.8%
Turkey 71.9% 16.2%
Czech Republic 61.0% 12.7%
Georgia 34.9% 4.3%

Former Belgium coach Roberto Martinez is now in charge of Portugal. Under him, the Euro 2016 champions won all 10 qualifiers, scoring more goals (36) and conceding fewer (two) than every other nation.

Awaiting them are debutants Georgia. Star player Khvicha Kvaratskhelia guided them to Nations League success, securing them a playoff spot for these Euros. Victory over Greece brought scenes of jubilation.

Elsewhere, an exciting bunch of Turkish wonderkids are emerging but an inconsistent 12 months has seen away wins in Germany and Croatia but also a 6-1 defeat to Austria. Rounding off the group is Czech Republic, who tend to fare better in Euros than in World Cups.


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