Europeans have captured the Breeders’ Cup Turf in seven of the last eight years and with six Group 1 winners invading Santa Anita Park on Nov. 4, it is highly likely that this trend will continue in 2023. How do the Europeans compare against each other and will any Americans hit the board.
Below I rank the entire expected field for the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf from first to last.
1. Mostahdaf. John Gosden’s son of Frankel has never been better following two powerful Group 1 victories. He showed he can close from far back in the Prince of Wales’s (G1) and showed his quality when being forced to wire the field last out in the paceless Juddmonte International (G1). He defeated Luxembourg by more than four lengths with a 129 Timeform Rating in the Prince of Wales’s. Luxembourg defeated Onesto in a Group 1 last year and was only a half-length behind Auguste Rodin in his last win.
2. Onesto. The France runner does not have the same credentials as Auguste Rodin or Mostahdaf, but he has shown similar talent and his value will be much better. His form looks a bit murky, but upon close review, he is a nice fit. He was only 11-1 in the 2022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) after a Group 1 win in France and a second in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1). Two rough trips and a mile prep race followed before he returned to his best form when unleashing a furious kick to run 3rd in the 2023 Arc de Triomphe. He has a style that suits American racing perfectly and the 128 Timeform Rating he earned last out is only 1 point behind Mostahdaf and 4 points ahead of Auguste Rodin’s best.
3. Auguste Rodin. The three-time Group 1 winner may start as the favorite and has been touted for quite some time as a star in Aidan O’Brien’s barn. He is undefeated in four starts around left-handed turns and has the tactical speed to sit a nice trip. The only knock on him is that he has only defeated older rivals only once. His price may be lower than it should be, but it would come as no surprise to see the Irish Derby (G1) winner emerge victorious.
4. King of Steel. The Champion Stakes (G1) winner certainly has the ability and the credentials to win this race. The reason he is ranked below his counterparts is because of the quick turnaround. He worked hard to win the Champion Stakes just the other day on Oct. 21 and now must fly across the world on short rest to face a tough bunch of rivals.
5. Up to the Mark. America’s best hope enters this race off of three Grade 1 wins in a row. He is a talented runner who continues to improve, but he would have to take another large step forward to compete with the top Europeans at a distance that he has yet to try.
6. War Like Goddess. It looked like the 6-year-old mare had lost a step prior to her convincing win in the Turf Classic (G1). She has always been a top class and consistent runner, but her very best races have occurred over softer going. She will likely be outrun late by the best of this group over firm ground.
7. Shahryar. The Japanese import is the most difficult horse to gauge in this field. Based on his last effort, he is likely to finish near the back of the pack, but on his best day the 2022 Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) winner can hold his own against the best the world has to offer. It is possible that he is no longer the same horse after traveling through Japan, Dubai and Europe.
8. Bolshoi Ballet. His smashing win in the Sword Dancer (G1) stamps him as a contender, but can he be relied on to repeat that effort which occurred on yielding turf course? His form in Europe was a cut below the best and even his prior races in America would not make him competitive against these runners.
9. Broome. Consistency has never been this runner’s calling card, but he seems to have gone the wrong way at the age of seven. He ran second in the 2021 edition of this race and will need a repeat of that effort just to hit the board.
10. Get Smokin. He led all the way at Kentucky Downs for his first stakes win since 2021. A repeat is unlikely against a much tougher field that also contains more expected early pace.
11. Gold Phoenix. He came into last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf in slightly better form than he does this year. Last year, he could only manage a 10th-place finish and it is hard to imagine a better performance against this deep field.
12. Adhamo. It is tough to rank Chad Brown’s only entrant in this field so low, but this gelding has not run a truly competitive race since July of 2022 and has shown no sign of improvement on the horizon.
13. Masteroffoxhounds. He has a decent chance of turning the tables on Balladeer. Unfortunately the battle between those is more likely to be for last than for first this time around.
14. Balladeer. It took this colt a long time to break through the allowance ranks, but he is now in the top form of his career with two wins in a row. The water gets much deeper here and he will have plenty of company on the front from Get Smokin.