- England play Slovenia in their final group game of Euro 2024 on Tuesday night
- Their opponents in the last-16 will be influenced by their result against Slovenia
- LISTEN to It’s All Kicking Off! Playing Trent Alexander-Arnold in midfield was a ‘progressive move but regrettably it didn’t work’
We are days away from entering the business end of Euro 2024, with each game carrying a bit more importance than the previous.
Only eight games remain in the group stage and it is all to play for as each nation looks to cement their spot in the knockout stages of the tournament.
England have already made it through to the last-16 stage of Euro 2024 with a game to spare but their result against Slovenia will inevitably decide their knockout round fate and how easy or difficult their run-in to the final could be.
The Three Lions currently sit top of Group C on four points ahead of Denmark and Slovenia but that could all change following tonight’s games.
Here is everything you need to know about England’s potential last-16 opponents and how the best third-placed teams are decided.
What England’s result vs Slovenia means for their last-16 opponents
Before we get started on permutations here is how things currently stand in Group C ahead of matchday three:
- England 4pts (GD +1)
- Slovenia 2pts (GD 0)
- Denmark 2pt (GD 0)
- Serbia 1pts (GD -1)
Gareth Southgate’s men will remain top of Group C with a win tonight in Cologne against Slovenia, whilst a draw could also be good enough to see them top the group, but only if Denmark lose or draw against Serbia.
If the Three Lions only manage a draw against Slovenia and Denmark beat Serbia by two goals or more, the Danes would leapfrog Southgate’s men and take the top spot, leaving England to finish second in the group.
If England lose to Slovenia and Serbia win against Denmark, Slovenia will go through on top, whilst if Slovenia and Denmark both win their games, the group winner would be deciede by goal difference. This would result in a third place finish for the Three Lions.
Who will England play in the last-16 of Euro 2024?
If England top their group:
If England win Group C, they will play one of the four best third-place teams in the round-of-16.
The formula to decide which one of the four teams England would face is very complicated and depends on the group combination of the four teams that qualify.
As it stands, it means England could face the third place team from Group D, Group E or Group F in the last-16 stage.
Austria currently sit third in Group D, Slovakia are there in Group E, while Czechia are third in Group E.
Further down below we give a full breakdown and explanation on how the best third-placed teams are decided and what it could mean for England.
The route of winning the group would then see England encounter the winner’s of the round-of-16 clash between tournament underdogs Switzerland and defending champions Italy.
If England finish Group C as runners-up:
This is arguably the toughest route for England and one they will be desperate to avoid.
If England finish second in Group C, they will face hosts and one of the tournament favourites Germany in their last-16 game in Dortmund on Saturday, June 29.
The path for Gareth Southgate’s men wouldn’t get any easier after that, if they managed to beat the Germans.
A win against the host in the round-of-16 would likely set up a quarter-final with Spain, who are so far the only team at the tournament to win every game.
If England finish third in Group C:
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The worst case scenario for England would see them lose to Slovenia and Denmark beating Serbia, meaning the Three Lions would fall drastically from top of the group to third.
A third place finish for England would see them face the group winners of either Group E or Group F.
Portugal have already secured their status as Group winners of Group F.
Meanwhile, Group E is still wide open, with all four teams level on three points heading into their final group games. However, Belgium are still down as favourites to top Group E.
Who England play out of those two is currently very difficult to explain as it depends on the combination of the third-placed teams who make it through to the round of 16.
Predicted Euro 2024 quarter-finals according to Football Rankings.
Explained: How are the best third place teams decided at Euro 2024
Before explaining how the best third-placed teams are decided, it is worth having a look at who currently occupies that status as the groups currently stand.
Austria, Slovakia, Hungary and Slovenia are the four teams in the driving position to qualify for the round-of-16.
Current third-placed teams and standings:
However that is likely to change in the coming days, as the final eight games of the group stage at Euro 2024 take place.
According to UEFA, the criteria which they follow to determine the four best third-placed teams is as follows:
- a. Higher number of points;
- b. Superior goal difference;
- c. Higher number of goals scored;
- d. Higher number of wins;
- e. Lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
- f. Position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings, or if Germany, the hosts are involved in the comparison, the drawing of lots is used.
Who England will face if they top Group C
Who England will face in the round-of-16 if they top Group C is a headache to try and understand.
This is because they could be paired against either the third-placed team from one of the following groups – Group D, Group E or Group F.
And which of those three teams England will face depends of the combination of the third-place teams.
Here is what the various combinations of the four best third-placed teams would mean for England, with the current teams in the third place positions denoted as the potential last-16 opponent.
Only six combinations are now possible following last night’s matches. Those combinations are ACDE, ADEF, CDEF, ABDE, ACDF, ACEF.
If the current combination remains following the conclusion of the final eight matches, it would mean a round-of-16 meeting with Group D’s third place side which would be Austria.
Football Meets Data have released the likelihood of each combination happening, with ACDE, ranking the most probable with 49 per cent.
Most likely third-place combinations to occur:
- ACDE – 49%
- ADEF – 34%
- CDEF – 13%
- ABDE – 2%
- ACDF – 2%
- ACEF – 0.1%
Who England will face in the last-16 if they finish third in Group C
Here is what the various combinations of the four best third-placed teams would mean for England if they finished Group C in third.
When England could play their last-16 tie?
Saturday, June 29
Germany v runner-up Group C (England) at 8pm
Sunday, June 30
Winner of Group C (England) v third place Group D/E/F at 5pm
Spain v third place Group A/D/E/F (England) at 8pm
Monday, July 1
Portugal v third place Group A/B/C (England) at 8pm
Tuesday, July 2
Winner Group E (Belgium / Romania / Slovakia / Ukraine) v third place Group A/B/C/D (England) at 5pm