Heatwaves have already baked southern Europe in the early weeks of summer 2024 – so how hot could popular tourist destinations get?
The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has said that the heat of May means there have now been 12 consecutive months of record-breaking global temperatures (based on records going back to 1940), and warns that record temperatures show no sign of letting up.
So how hot will it get this summer? We’ve taken a look at medium-range forecasts for some of Britain’s favourite tourist destinations (Turkey, France, Spain, Greece and Germany), to see how high the temperature could get in Europe this summer.
France
Forecasters have suggested that this summer is likely to be hotter than normal, with drought in some areas.
Experts have warned that heat may even disrupt the Olympics – with previous summer heatwaves having seen a temperature of 42.6C in Paris in July 2019.
French forecaster Météo France has said there is a 50% probability of a hotter than normal summer and 30% probability of average temperatures.
Along the Mediterranean coastline, the probability of a hotter than average summer is 70% – and Météo France says that the south-east of France is likely to be dry and could see drought conditions.
Spain
Spain is likely to see a hotter and drier summer than normal, according to the official meteorological agency Aemet.
The forecast suggests that this summer has a high probability (70%-100%) of being warmer than normal throughout the summer. It is also highly likely this summer will be among the warmest on record, based on weather predictions provided by the Copernicus climate change service, the agency said.
Aemet spokesman Rubén del Campo added, “The Copernicus forecast shows the most likely scenario is a summer with less rain than usual.”
Greece
Greece was hit by its earliest heatwave on record this year – after seeing a record-breaking 16-day heatwave last summer which sparked wildfires.
Several tourists have gone missing in Greek islands in recent days, with multiple deaths including health and diet guru Michael Mosley.
High temperatures are likely to continue over summer, warned meteorology expert Rosie Mammat, speaking to the Telegraph.
Based on analysis from The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Mammat says holidaymakers can expect a very warm summer season, which could be the warmest ever seen in Greece.
Turkey
Turkey has already seen temperatures over 40C this summer, around 8-12C higher than the seasonal average. Firefighters have battled to keep wildfires under control in many areas, with forest fires in seven provinces.
Professor Dr Murat Türkeş, a climate change expert at Boğaziçi University, has said that record-breaking temperatures are likely through the summer.
The hottest areas are likely to be southeastern provinces of the country and the Central Anatolia region.
Portugal
Temperatures in Portugal have already soared this summer, with highs in the late 30s predicted in late June.
In recent years, Portugal has been among the countries worst affected by wildfires linked to climate change.
According to Spanish weather forecasting service Aemet, Portugal has a high probability (70%-100%) of being warmer than normal throughout the summer.
Germany
Germany has faced severe storms including powerful winds and extremely heavy rain which led to the closure of ‘fan zones’ at some Euros stadiums.
Going forward, the outlook is warmer according to the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) weather service.
The DWD’s medium-term forecast for the coming months forecasts that July and August will be hot, particularly in the south of the country.