It’s the simplest question in Euroleague Basketball or all of basketball in general. Are you Red or are you Green? Olympiacos host Panathinaikos on Thursday in the Greek derby
The Greek derby in Euroleague Basketball never needs any extra hype. This Thursday’s clash of Panathinaikos and Olympiacos has more on the line than usual. The battle for home court is alive for both. The race to avoid the play-ins is also relevant. The bottom line is, even without that, this is a matter of pride.
Key details
Who: Olympiacos (17-11) vs Panathinaikos (18-10)
Where: Peace and Friendship Stadium, Piraeus, Greece
When: Thursday 14 March at 18.45 CET, 17.45 UK/Ireland, 12.45 EST
Last time out
Olympiacos extended their Euroleague Basketball winning streak to five last week at home to Virtus Bologna. The hard fought 74-69 win means they sit above the play-in line as things currently stand.
Panathinaikos made it three wins on the trot last time out. The Greens enjoyed a comfortable 85-67 win over Asvel at home. That has them tuned up nicely for the second Greek derby of the season.
Key battles
What exactly Panathinaikos do to contain Moustapha Fall is going to be really interesting here. They showed in their road win over Real Madrid that they are ready for any big man out there. Limiting a big man however isn’t the end of that story. It’s the how involved that gets interesting as what opportunities any work they do on Fall deliver for Olympiacos are going to be intriguing.
It’s worth noting that what Olympiacos do to marshall Mathias Lessort will prove just as influential on the game. He’s a completely different big to Fall but any adjustments made by the Reds will create openings for Panathinaikos.
Then there are the big time backcourt contributors. Kostas Sloukas is obvious the guy for the Greens but he will have opportunities to move off the ball. Kendrick Nunn and Jerian Grant will both need big outings to create the optimal conditions for Sloukas.
The Reds will look to Nigel Williams Goss and Isaiah Canaan to integrate their swingmen and front court ballers more. In both cases, it’s going to be about the grind more than the statline on Thursday.
BallinEurope is ramping up its YouTube game this season. Subscribe to our channel now for player exclusives, analysis videos, and much more.
Need to know
They don’t call it the Derby of Eternal Enemies for marketing purposes. The Greek Derby is as passionate as it gets in basketball. Both coaches, Giorgios Bartzokas and Ergin Ataman, are known for their fiery demeanours but that masks keen tactical minds.
Both men have gone all the way in Euroleague Basketball. Each knows the task at hand and the pressure it involves. Using that to channel the best out of their players is why they are in the roles they hold. The dudes in suits will be critical for Olympiacos and Panathinaikos in this one.
What the bookies think
In a shock to nobody, this one is tight in Euroleague Basketball betting. The sportsbooks have Olympiacos as 4/7 favourites while Panathinaikos are priced at 6/4.
That being said, the point spread is still -3.5 for Olympiacos. That gives bettors a lot more room to work with than I expected. The total is where I figure the most interest should lie. The bookies have set a really low total of 153.5, working out at less than 77 points for each team on average.
BallinEurope has a book, a real life actual book called I Like it Loud, and you can buy it on Amazon now. It’s here as a book and here in Kindle form.
What we think
The total is worth talking about in the game breakdown. The bookies clearly expect this one to be a drag it out phone booth fight. I understand the rationale given the history of the Greek Derby. Olympiacos and Panathinaikos are more than familiar with low-scoring affairs against each other.
That being said, I could well see the defensive adjustments being countered well on both ends. I don’t expect a game of runs but I would be equally surprised if that leads to an all-out defensive slog. I’m expecting haymakers from both sides on Thursday. Key possessions will prove telling on D but that doesn’t mean we should look for a grind it out game.
The prediction
Starting with the prediction I am most confident about. I expect both sides to succeed more than expected offensively. That means I’m taking the over. Now for the small matter of who wins.
I’m expecting this to be close and I’m expecting Olympiacos to ask every kind of question of Panathinaikos. I’m also confident that this recent run of Panathinaikos is a sign of long-term stability in their performances. Rationality points towards the Reds but there’s a name that keeps ringing in my head. It’s a name fans of Euroleague Basketball know all too well. This one screams of Kostas Sloukas breaking the hearts of his old team late. At least this time.
Pick: Panathinaikos at 6/4 and OVER 153.5 points