The numbers tell a stark story. Over the past two decades, the share of foreign-born workers in the UK workforce has more than doubled, from 9 per cent in 2004 to 19 per cent – around 6.2 million people – by the end of 2022, an Oxford University paper published early this year showed.
This influx has brought skilled talent from across the globe, including 250,000 Indians who arrived last year alone – around 127,000 for work and 115,000 for study.
Chinese and Pakistani workers have also flocked to Britain in recent years, to the tune of 90,000 and 83,000, respectively, according to a May report in The Economic Times, citing 2023 data from the UK’s Office of National Statistics.
Yet the rise of anti-immigration populists casts a pall of uncertainty over this professional pipeline.
The stakes could not be higher. India’s services exports – a US$323 billion juggernaut as of last year – have been the backbone of its economic growth for decades. Any disruption to the cross-border movement of talent that fuels this engine could have devastating ripple effects, both for India and the global economy at large.
“The Reform UK Party has come up as a source of worry,” said Biswajit Dhar, a professor at the Council for Social Development in New Delhi. “They will keep nudging the government towards a more hawkish stance on immigration.”
Indeed, with the spectre of anti-immigrant sentiment looming large, analysts agree that immigration policy is poised to be a dominant force on the British political agenda in the months ahead.
“But for those abroad who want to help boost trade and cultural ties, they will be fine,” he said. “Cutting off foreign talent who want to contribute to the commonwealth of Britain isn’t on the cards.”
Experts warn that any crackdown on the cross-border movement of professionals could severely constrain economic growth, especially as Europe’s ageing populations exacerbate labour shortages and drive up wage inflation.
These dynamics are not unique to the UK – France and other parts of Europe are grappling with parallel challenges as the rise of right-wing populism upends the status quo.
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Could a far-right shift in the EU parliament change its relations with China?
Could a far-right shift in the EU parliament change its relations with China?
The concerns surrounding immigration have only intensified, as smuggling networks have proven to be remarkably flexible and resilient.
People smugglers have been “adapting to law enforcement actions by quickly changing the routes they use,” said Priyajit Debsarkar, a London-based British-Indian author. “The routes are continually diversifying and changing.”
To combat this, he said law enforcement authorities must rely on real-time situational awareness and intelligence-sharing, a daunting task in the face of nimble and elusive criminal operations.
Yet, as nationalist fervour rises, the lines between foreign talent and illegal immigration have become dangerously blurred.
Political parties in France and the UK have been quick to scapegoat migrants for a host of societal ills, a dynamic that could have dire consequences for the free movement of professionals and tourists – the lifeblood of a thriving economy.