The rise of arch-isolationist JD Vance has cemented Europe fears that a second Trump presidency would drastically reduce transatlantic security ties and sever critical US support for Ukraine’s defence against Russian aggression.
Donald Trump’s selection of Vance as his running mate on Monday night intensifies long-running concerns among US allies that the Republican candidate for November’s election intends to run a protectionist “America first” administration, with huge implications for Europe’s defence and economic security.
“More champagne popping in the Kremlin,” said Guy Verhofstadt, a member of the European parliament and former Belgian prime minister, in response to Vance’s nomination, in a post on X. “Are Europe and UK preparing yet or still shuffling the deckchairs on the Titanic?”
Vance has said he sees the US’s security umbrella for Europe, a pledge underpinned by the Nato alliance that has been a cornerstone of the continent’s defence since the second world war, as a crutch that has allowed Europe “to ignore its own security”.
“There is frankly no good reason that aid from the US should be needed [for Ukraine],” the Ohio senator wrote in a February Financial Times op-ed. “We owe it to our European partners to be honest: Americans want allies in Europe, not client states, and our generosity in Ukraine is coming to an end.”
The US is the largest provider of financial assistance and military hardware to Ukraine. Even though the EU has collectively provided more to Kyiv since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, US support is seen as irreplaceable: Ukraine was forced to ration ammunition and lost significant territory as US lawmakers held up the approval of $60bn in military aid this spring.
Trump’s lead in polling ahead of November’s vote and incumbent Joe Biden’s stumbling performances in their first televised debate have already spooked European capitals fearful that the Republican will return to the White House.
European officials also worry that Trump would use a second term to impose blanket tariffs on imports that would damage the EU economy, in addition to ending support to Ukraine and reducing the US security commitment to the continent.
Vance said last week that the UK could be the “first truly Islamist country that will get a nuclear weapon . . . since Labour just took over”, referring to the UK’s new centre-left ruling party. About 6.5 per cent of the UK’s population is Muslim.
Angela Rayner, the UK’s deputy prime minister, challenged Vance’s contentious remarks on Tuesday. “We won votes across all different communities, across the whole of the country,” she told a UK television show. “And we’re interested in governing on behalf of Britain and working with our international allies.”
Trump intends to demand peace talks between Ukraine and Russia immediately if he wins the election and has “well-founded plans” on how to do so, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said after meeting the Republican candidate last week.
Kyiv has rejected calls for immediate peace talks while Russia continues to occupy large parts of southern and eastern Ukraine.
Vance has repeatedly called for Ukraine to cede territory in order to end the war, arguing such a settlement would be in Washington’s best interests.
The position closely aligns with the terms laid out by Russian President Vladimir Putin last month to begin peace talks.
News of Vance’s appointment to the Trump ticket sparked concern in Ukraine, where the senator’s comments have rankled officials who have come to keep a close eye on policy movements in Washington.
“The choice of Vance is a clear signal for us,” said Inna Sovsun, a Ukrainian lawmaker from the liberal Golos party, pointing to the senator’s stance against assistance for Kyiv.
Should Trump and Vance win in November, Ukraine would need to “think of a new strategy of communication with the Americans”, she added. “The person who openly said ‘Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory to the Russians’ cannot be the best representation of US politics. Russia is our common enemy.”
Trump has also made it clear he has little appetite to continue the current level of US backing for Ukraine. He has said the US will stop arming Kyiv if it does not agree to sit down with Russia for talks.
The Biden administration and most of its European allies do not believe that Putin is willing to talk in good faith, and see giving Ukraine ample military assistance as the best chance to set better conditions for discussions.
In Ukraine, officials see House Speaker Mike Johnson’s decision to allow the $60bn assistance package through Congress this year as a glimmer of hope that future aid could continue during a Trump presidency. They believe the legislation would not have happened without Trump’s permission and it is to Ukraine’s benefit that he is trying to persuade Europe to contribute more.
“Trump is telling other countries to spend more in Ukraine . . . we agree. We’re in favour,” a Ukrainian official said.
Trump allies such as Vance and Ric Grenell, a former ambassador to Germany seen as a top contender to be secretary of state, have signalled that they would shift away from the Biden administration’s approach of open-ended support for Kyiv should the Republican candidate win in November.
Grenell advocated for autonomous zones in Ukraine during a Bloomberg event on the sidelines of the Republican convention in Milwaukee on Monday, a proposal that goes against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s vow to keep fighting until all Russian forces leave Ukraine.
“Autonomous regions can mean a lot of things to a lot of people, but you have got to work through those details,” he said in apparent reference to portions of Ukraine that are under Russian control.
Additional reporting by Lucy Fisher