The 2016 vote was carried over the line by a muddled combination of promises of economic benefit, more money to spend on critical services and lower rates of immigration, by men now viewed by some as charlatans, such as former prime minister Boris Johnson and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.
Farage himself now says Brexit has “failed” – but he puts the blame on the Conservative government.
Credit: Adobe Stock image/ Artwork: Marija Ercegovac
Research by UK in a Changing Europe, a think tank, found the most common reasons people feel Brexit is going poorly are economic: increased prices, staff shortages and a weaker economy more generally. This is the case for both Remain and Leave voters.
Several research papers have found voters feel negatively about the course that Brexit has taken so far. Even among those who voted Leave, less than one in five feel that Brexit is going well, although most seem hesitant about making a definitive assessment.
Most blame the decision itself; others blame the British government for not taking better advantage of it; and still others say Brexit suffered from bad luck as it took effect shortly before the pandemic and the Ukraine war, both of which distracted the government and damaged the economy.
Many people in Britain who backed Brexit feel betrayed. Last month, billionaire businessman Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the new owner of Manchester United, said Brexit hadn’t worked and that voters would turn to Labour as a result.
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Ratcliffe, a vocal supporter of leaving the EU, criticised the Conservative government’s delivery and said Brexit had ultimately failed to address immigration.
“Brexit, unfortunately, didn’t turn out how people anticipated,” he told Sky News last month. “Brexit was largely about immigration. That was the biggest component of that vote.
“People were getting fed up with the influx of [the size of] the city of Southampton coming in every year. I think last year it was two times Southampton.
“A small island like the UK can’t cope with vast numbers of people coming in. It just overburdens the NHS, the traffic service, the police.”
The Brexit vote in June 2016 was the first in a series of populist earthquakes to rock Western politics. It was soon followed by the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States.
Both will go down in history as revolts by those who felt left behind by globalisation, taken for granted by traditional politicians and looked down on by urban elites. Both set in motion forces that are still playing out.
But Ratcliffe’s remarks about immigration and Brexit deciding the next general election contrast with polling. According to Ipsos’ latest monthly “issues index”, immigration is only the fourth most important issue for Britons.
Protester Steve Bray holds a placard reading, “Brexit Was Not Worth It”, last year.Credit: Getty Images
Its latest survey of 1035 adults suggests the most important issue is the economy (34 per cent) followed by the National Health Service (29 per cent) and inflation (27 per cent). Immigration was mentioned by 24 per cent of respondents.
And that’s where Brexit has made its mark. Goldman Sachs estimates the British economy is now 5 per cent smaller than it otherwise would have been without Brexit, although some say it is difficult to properly separate that from the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a British think tank, estimated that Brexit has resulted in a lost annual income per capita of £850 ($1600) since 2020.
While the anti-Brexit mood of a majority of voters is clear, that does not translate into a burning wish to fight old battles again. In this general election campaign, it is only muttered. No mainstream leader is brave enough to concede it’s failed, let alone promise to reverse the decision.
Professor Michael Gasiorek, from Chatham House, says while Britain may have notionally taken back control over areas such as migration, as Brexit campaigners said it would, the evidence shows leaving the EU had negatively affected the economy.
“It is pretty clear why the Conservatives don’t want to talk about the EU. Brexit, which they championed, has offered few economic advantages, nor have migration levels come down,” he said. “The government has failed to organise itself to take advantage of sovereignty effectively.”
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Beyond the economic hit, Brexit has become a byword for unkept political promises and poor governance. And the ruling Conservatives are now about to pay the price.
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