Gareth Southgate’s side are yet to play their final Group C game at Euro 2024, but the four points they’ve already accumulated against Serbia and Denmark might be enough for the round-of-16
England could be guaranteed a place in the last 16 of Euro 2024 as soon as tonight – but they’re relying a favour from one of their rivals.
Gareth Southgate’s side are currently top of Group C, having picked up four points from their opening 2-1 win against Serbia and one point from their stale 1-1 draw with Denmark. The Three Lions still have one more group game left to play, as they’ll take on Slovenia in Cologne on Tuesday.
A win would see them confirm first place while a draw would also be enough to guarantee at least second. A loss to Slovenia combined with a Denmark victory over Serbia, however, would leave England third.
As there’s 24 teams in the tournament, the four best third-placed teams across the six groups will also qualify for the round-of-16 via a separate league table. With Group A’s third-placed team, Hungary, finishing on just three points, England would only need to finish on more points than one other nation who finish in third.
That outcome could be confirmed as soon as tonight following the final pair of matches Group B which both kick-off at 8pm. Croatia, who remain winless after two games, will take on Italy in Leipzig before tournament minnows Albania face red-hot Spain in Dusseldorf.
The current standings see already-qualified Spain on six points, Italy on three and Albania and Croatia on one point each. As they play each other, only one of Italy and Croatia can end on four or more points.
That means the only other way Group B’s third placed-team can end on four points is if Spain were to suffer a shock defeat to Albania. Anything else would see England through as at least one of the best third-placed teams.
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England’s worst case scenario – until their fate comes into their own hands tomorrow, of course – would be a surprise Albania win, putting them on four points with a potentially higher goal difference than England’s, combined with a victory for Italy, who’d then finish second with six points.
Should Albania win and Italy draw, the Italians would still finish second thanks to their superior head-to-head record. Spain manager Luis de la Fuente could rest a number of key players with one eye on the last 16, with midfielder Rodri already suspended after picking up a yellow card in each of their first two games.
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