The good news for most of Europe’s leading football nations is that with one day of the group stages left they are through to the knockout stages of the European Championship — the bad news is many of them are in the same half of a lopsided draw.
As you can see from the bracket below, Spain, Germany, Portugal and France are all on one side with only one able to make it to the final — the opposite to England and Italy.
Partly this is due to a dramatic conclusion to Group D where Austria surprisingly topped the group after defeating the Netherlands 3-2, while France and Poland drew 1-1. There was no such drama in Group C where England and Slovenia and then Denmark and Serbia drew 0-0.
The result is that France on paper have a much harder run to the final on July 14, with Spain and Germany, and France and Portugal potentially meeting in the quarter-finals.
This means it is possible England could have a potential route to the final consisting of a last-16 clash against Slovakia, a quarter-final against Switzerland and a semi-final against Austria (or even Georgia). Though it remains more likely than not that Netherlands will be Gareth Southgate’s side’s opponents in the last 16.
Portugal’s tough route is in sharp contrast to Euro 2016, when they won the competition after reaching the final with victories over Croatia (last 16), Poland (on penalties in the quarter-final) and Wales (semi-final).
Will Jeanes
The least entertaining Euros group ever
Talking of those 0-0s, there were just seven goals scored in Group C — equalling the record for the lowest-scoring group in the history of the European Championship.
The only other time there had been as few goals as this scored in a group came in 2016 when Germany, Poland, Northern Ireland and Ukraine served up a snoozefest in what was also Group C.
Just one game in that group finished 0-0 (Germany v Poland), but there were two in this year’s group — both on day 12.
Masked Mbappe returns… and finally scores at a Euros
It took two tournaments, six games, 536 minutes and 23 shots, but Kylian Mbappe finally has a goal at a European Championship. And he did it wearing his new mask (but not the tricolour one that looked so smart).
It’s a difficult thing to explain, given that he has 12 goals in 14 appearances over two World Cups, including four in two finals. Have the Euros just been badly timed for Mbappe, coinciding with difficult periods in his career? Are the Euros genuinely more difficult to win than the World Cup, or is that just something he has said to justify his lack of success at the tournament? Has the France team around him simply been better at those World Cups in 2018 and 2022?
Mbappe scores from the penalty spot (Catherine Ivill/AMA/Getty Images)
In this game at least, they certainly seemed more dependent on him, certainly before Olivier Giroud and Antoine Griezmann came on after an hour. In the moments before he scored his penalty, there was certainly a sense that the likes of Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembele were just looking to Mbappe to do something, rather than taking control themselves.
Maybe there isn’t a reason. Or at least not a logical one. Maybe it’s a weird quirk, a sort of statistical variance. But if France are to do anything significant at this competition, then he will need to score plenty more.
The other positive development for Mbappe is he took a big whack on his fractured, masked nose… and it held firm.
Nick Miller
Look out for Austria
If Austria weren’t dark horses for Euro 2024 before this game — and their dazzling 3-1 victory over Poland, coupled with some impressive results in the last two years under Rangnick, certainly suggested it — then they really are now.
Victory over the Dutch not only sends a statement to the rest of the tournament that they are capable of beating one of the top nations (adding to wins over Germany and Italy in friendlies) but it also takes them to Leipzig in the last 16 where they’ll play the runner-ups in Group F, which will be one of Turkey, Czech Republic or Georgia.
Rangnick and his players celebrate victory over the Netherlands (Alex Pantling/UEFA via Getty Images)
As Rangnick, who not so long ago was enduring an awful spell in interim charge of Manchester United, said before the tournament started, should they squeeze through they will fancy their chances of beating anybody. Well, they will certainly fancy beating any of those three and then…well, who knows how far they can go.
With a brand of attacking football and an intensity that never seems to let up, no one will want to play them.
There is a tangible belief among their success-starved fanbase that something special is happening under Rangnick.
Tim Spiers
What’s next?
On Wednesday, the group stage of the Euros culminates with the final games in Groups E and F at which point the bracket will be complete. You can read about the remaining permutations here.
Ukraine v Belgium (5pm BST/Noon ET)
Slovakia v Romania (5pm BST/Noon ET)
Czech Republic v Turkey (8pm BST/3pm ET)
Georgia v Portugal (8pm BST/3pm ET)
(Top photo: Daniela Porcelli/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images)