- Author, Scott Mullen
- Role, BBC Sport Scotland in Cologne
The Rhine wasn’t the only thing flowing beneath an overcast Cologne sky on Saturday.
Optimism was surging through the place. Oh, and beer. Lots of beer.
Scotland’s 1-1 draw with Switzerland has given the Tartan Army something tangible to sing about at last in the streets and bars of Germany.
But how close are Steve Clarke’s side to qualifying? Let’s take a look…
How can Scotland get through?
The top two teams in the groups automatically qualify. That much is simple.
Finishing third? You still have a chance, as long as you’re not in the bottom two third-place teams. Four of those six will make it into the last 16.
After the Switzerland game, Scotland were the third-best third-placed team but that could change with ever game that passes in the other groups.
Not least because a raft of teams still have to play their second match.
But if Clarke’s side manage to keep their place in that top four, happy days.
Do Scotland need to beat Hungary?
Again, there’s a huge element of the unknown given there’s so much football to be played, but Scotland will be in trouble if they fail to beat the Hungarians.
If there are loads of draws, combined with group favourites handing out defeats, then you never know.
But you’d fancy teams to start picking up points and for the form lines to be disrupted at some stage.
Another factor in all of this is Scotland’s goal difference. That hammering from Germany has them sitting at -4. That’s the same as Hungary.
The Scots have also scored just two, which doesn’t help their goals-for column.
If Scotland win in Stuttgart on Sunday, they’ll go to four points and that – touch every bit of wood you can find – should be enough to see them into the last 16.
Can Scotland still finish second?
The short answer is yes. The long answer is… yes, but probably not.
If Germany beat Switzerland and Scotland defeat Hungary, the Scots and Swiss will be locked on four points.
We can forget the first series of tiebreakers because they all relates to the game between them, which ended in a draw.
After that, we move on to goal difference in all three group matches. It would take a swing of seven goals to mean Scotland would finish second. Unlikely, unless the Swiss take an almighty hiding against the hosts.
If – and this is possibly the biggest if of the century – Scotland and Switzerland are tied on points, goal difference, and goals scored, it goes to whoever has the best disciplinary record.
And after that? Let’s not get into that just now…
What happens if Scotland get through?
An excellent question that deserves an extremely convoluted and vague answer.
We only really know for sure where Scotland would be if they finished second.
If so, Clarke’s side would play the runners up of Group B in Berlin’s Olympiastadion on 29 June at 17:00 BST.
Hold your breath, that’s currently holders Italy, but also could be Spain, Albania or Croatia.
If Scotland finish third, they’d be back in Cologne or Munich, or would travel to Frankfurt, for a game on 30 June, 1 July or 2 July against one of the group winners.
All of this is mind-bendingly confusing, so try not to fret at this stage. Scotland just need to get there first.