While the Opta predictor puts England in first position, it is France – the team who knocked them out of the 2022 World Cup – who are hot on their heels at the top end of the charts.
With a 19.1% chance for Didier Deschamps’ side to win Euro 2024, there’s a legitimate feel of a ‘big two’ meeting in the final.
In fact, the model estimates that both teams have almost a one-in-two chance of making the semi-finals, with England at 48.2% and France at 48.1% respectively, to be among the final four.
Beyond them, hosts Germany are the team who round out the top three in terms of projected champions.
Julian Nagelsmann’s side have a 12.4% chance of being victorious on home soil, and are the last of the three sides with a better than 10% likelihood of lifting the trophy.
As for those who look the surest bets to make some noise in the knockout stages, England, France, Germany, Spain, and Portugal are the five teams given a 50% or better chance of reaching at least the quarter-finals.