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We are only seven days into Euro 2024, but already the word ‘permutations’ is flying around.
With Scotland and England having played twice, the calculators are out as people try to plot a potential route into the last 16.
The top two teams in all six groups qualify automatically, but the four best third-placed teams also make it through.
How do things stand for England?
England need to avoid defeat against Slovenia in their final group game on Tuesday to progress from Group C.
If Denmark fail to beat Serbia, then England will qualify regardless of their result against Slovenia. However, if England lose to Slovenia and Serbia win their game then Slovenia will win the group.
England must beat Slovenia to top the group if Denmark win against Serbia.
Even if England do not finish in the top two, they could progress as one of the best third-placed teams.
No team has failed to reach the knockout stages in a 24-team Euros after gaining four points.
How do things stand for Scotland?
If Scotland lose their final group match to Hungary, they will finish fourth and be eliminated.
If the match is drawn, Scotland will finish the group in third and could yet qualify – but that would depend on results in other groups.
If Scotland win the game, they will finish either second or third – depending on the result in Switzerland’s match with Germany.
As Scotland drew with Switzerland, their positions will be decided on overall goal difference, then overall goals scored, then disciplinary points, then their ranking in European qualifiers.
As it stands, Scotland’s goal difference is six worse than Switzerland’s, so it would need a significant swing in the final round of games.
Who are best third-placed teams?
The results of the third-placed teams are compared based on their three group stage matches, according to the following criteria:
A: Higher number of points
B: Superior goal difference
C: Higher number of goals scored
E: Lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
F: Position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings, or if Germany, the host association team, is involved in the comparison, drawing of lots