The European Parliament elections begin on Thursday and some have raised fears over a far right surge, but my primary concern is turnout.
The result hinges on the mobilisation of different party electorates, and Brussels needs a high turnout to demonstrate a strong mandate to lead Europe through these challenging times.
Five years ago, 51 per cent of adult Europeans voted in the European Parliament election. While not exceptionally high, that’s close to the 56 per cent average turnout in US presidential elections since 1932.
The EU is far from becoming the “United States of Europe”, but this level of engagement at the 2019 election reversed a trend of declining turnout, marking the highest participation rate in 20 years.
Turnout increased in two thirds of the EU’s member states, especially among younger voters, preventing a significant rise of anti-European forces in Brussels and strengthening the new leadership’s democratic mandate.
This year, however, there is a risk of low mobilisation among pro-European voters. If this leads to low overall turnout, it could undermine Brussels’ legitimacy for years and cause division across the EU.
The concern is not just about a shift to the right and less progressive policies on climate, migration, or enlargement. It’s also about the European Commission potentially losing a strong mandate to keep the EU united, for example, on the war in Ukraine.
The US presidential election could test the EU’s unity even more than the European Parliament election.
Some studies, like the European Parliament’s February and March survey, suggest turnout may be rising. In almost every member state, more people are interested in this election compared to five years ago. However, interest may not translate into actual voting, and even growing mobilisation might not be equal across party electorates.
Supporters of some anti-European parties appear strongly mobilised this year, possibly exceeding the engagement of pro-European mainstream voters. According to ECFR’s January public opinion polling, supporters of the far right Alternative for Germany party were more determined to vote than those of the Social Democrats or centre right CDU/CSU. Similarly, in France, Emmanuel Macron’s LREM cannot expect a mobilisation advantage over Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, and Austria’s Freedom Party voters showed strong mobilisation, too.
In countries like the Netherlands and Sweden, anti-European party voters may be less mobilised than the national average, according to ECFR’s polling.
However, the trend of European Parliament elections mobilising EU sympathisers more than critics seems to be over. This shift is a sum of two independent developments: on the one hand, several anti-European forces have been successful in mobilising their voters; on the other hand, there’s a growing apathy on the pro-European side.
Anti-Europeans have partly achieved that thanks to a change in strategy. While most of these parties have stopped advocating for their country’s exit from the EU, many now aim to change the EU from within, making strong representation in the European Parliament more crucial. These parties also effectively channel voter frustrations with the EU’s recent policies on climate, migration, Covid-19, and the war in Ukraine.
According to fresh Eurobarometer data, on average 48 per cent of people in the 27 EU member states believe things are going in the wrong direction in the EU; only 34 per cent think otherwise. The radical right is well-positioned to benefit from this dissatisfaction.
Meanwhile, pro-European party voters are less enthusiastic about the EU due to various crises. People in Poland, once a capital of EU enthusiasm, are now critical of various EU policies, according to a recent study by More in Common. Other factors add to the pro-European parties’ mobilisation struggle. In Germany and Spain, centre-left parties suffer from leading difficult national coalitions. In Poland, voters might be tired of voting, having done so three times in nine months.
But pro-European voters might also be unsure why they should vote in this year’s election at all. In 2019, many were motivated by the need to fight climate change, protect democracy, combat nationalism, and prevent the EU’s collapse.
The stakes were clearer, as elections coincided with the peak of the Fridays for Future movement, and many pro-Europeans saw the Brexit vote, and Donald Trump’s election, as a warning for Europe.
This year, the threat of a far right surge may not seem as credible, especially as leaders like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Le Pen have detoxified their image. Climate policy is no longer a leading concern, and many voters have issues with how the EU has addressed it.
Preserving European unity in times of the Ukraine war is important, but it’s challenging to turn this into a compelling “go out and vote” message.
In recent weeks, pro-European forces have largely led defensive campaigns based on fear of the far right and the Ukraine war, without clarifying how they could positively contribute to the EU’s problems. If they fail to mobilise their voters on the election day, we should be prepared for an acrimonious blame game and disagreements about the EU’s mandate in the years to come.
Understanding uneven turnout and its drivers will be key to learn the right lessons from this experience.
Pawel Zerka is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)