European elections: Far-right parties in Europe on course for gains, exit polls indicate

Far-right parties are on course to make gains in several European countries, while support for the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) is holding up well, according to election exit polling from eight countries.

Support for nationalist and far-right parties had been expected to surge in the European Parliament elections, however the current governing majority of the EPP, centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and centrist Renew is likely to remain intact.

The European Greens are projected to lose a large number of the seats they won five years ago, with exit polls indicating a big drop in support in their traditional heartland of Germany. While the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) are set to become the second biggest party in Germany, despite a rocky campaign full of controversy.

Exit poll data shows the centre right Christian Democratic Union are to top the poll in Germany, with chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SDP) to finish in third place, behind AfD.

[ Macron calls French parliamentary elections after far-right gains in EU vote ]

Overall, the EPP, which includes Fine Gael MEPs, is expected to remain as the largest grouping in the European Parliament.

The EPP is forecast to win 186 of the available 720 seats, with S&D to take 133, while Renew would drop to 82 seats from 102, according to a projection of the make-up of the next parliament.

The projection was based on exit polls from 15 countries and surveys taken during campaigns where exit polls were not conducted.

The Green grouping is forecast to lose a significant portion of its seats, falling from 71 to 53 seats. Hard right and far right parties, which are splintered between groupings, are expected to take north of 160 seats in the new parliament, according to the projection.

Counting to fill Ireland’s 14 seats in the is under way but the first results will not be announced until after 9pm Irish time.

In France, president Emmanuel Macron called for new parliamentary elections on Sunday evening, after his camp heavily lost to the far-right National Rally party in the country’s EU election.

The far-right Freedom Party of Austria are projected to top the poll there and gain a number of seats, with exit polls showing them finishing ahead of the centre-right Austrian People’s Party and the centre left Social Democratic Party of Austria.

In Greece, the centre-right New Democracy will remain the largest party, with an exit poll showing it on support levels of 30 per cent. Left wing party Syriza are on course to finish as runners up, with around 16 per cent of the vote. Greek Solution, a far-right party, is expected to finish in fifth place, with exit polls show it winning about 8 per cent of votes.

Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom will gain several seats in the Netherlands, where support for centre parties appears to have held up well, according to exit polls.

Croatian Democratic Union, who sit with the EPP, are set to top the poll in Croatia, with an exit poll putting support for the party on 33 per cent. In Malta, parties that sit in the EPP and the S&D groups are predicted to each win three of the six available seats.

Since the last EU election in 2019, populist or far-right parties now lead governments in three nations – Hungary, Slovakia and Italy – and are part of the ruling coalition in others.

The elections come at a testing time for voter confidence in a bloc of 450 million people. Over the past five years, the EU has been shaken by the coronavirus pandemic, an economic slump and an energy crisis fuelled by the biggest land conflict in Europe since the second World War.

The polls also mark the beginning of a period of uncertainty for the Europeans and their international partners. Beyond the wrangling to form political groups and establish alliances inside parliament, governments will compete to secure top EU jobs for their national officials.

Chief among them is the presidency of the powerful executive branch, the European Commission, which proposes laws and watches to ensure they are respected. The commission also controls the EU’s purse strings, manages trade and is Europe’s competition watchdog.

Other plum posts are those of European Council president, who chairs summits of presidents and prime ministers, and EU foreign policy chief, the bloc’s top diplomat.

EU politicians have a say on legislation ranging from financial rules to climate or agriculture policy. They also approve the EU budget, which apart from funding the bloc’s political priorities bankrolls things like infrastructure projects, farm subsidies or aid delivered to Ukraine.

But despite their important role, political campaigning often focuses on issues of concern in individual countries rather than on broader European interests. Voters routinely use their ballots to protest against the policies of their national governments.

Surveys suggest mainstream and pro-European parties will retain their majority in parliament, but that the hard right, including parties led by politicians like Mr Wilders or France’s Marine Le Pen, will eat into their share of seats.

Questions remain over what group Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban’s staunchly nationalist and anti-migrant Fidesz party might join. It was previously part of the EPP but was forced out in 2021 due to conflicts over its interests and values.

The EPP has campaigned for Ursula von der Leyen to be granted a second term as commission president but nothing guarantees that she will be returned even if they win. National leaders will decide who is nominated, even though the parliament must approve any nominee. – Additional reporting agencies