All the usual twists and turns have made the battle for the Premier League’s European places particularly intriguing heading into the final day of the season.
The top four, however, is all sewn up; Manchester City, Arsenal Liverpool and Aston Villa will represent England in next term’s Champions League.
Tottenham Hotspur looked to be providing the sternest challenge to Unai Emery’s side but five defeats in their last six games have left them staring at a place in the Europa League instead — especially after English sides botched their chances to secure an extra spot in next season’s Champions League.
To secure that, though, Spurs need to fend off the two teams chasing them from below — Newcastle United and Chelsea, two teams who Manchester United can still surpass in the standings. Two of the four will earn a Europa League spot, one will play in the Conference League and one will miss out on European football entirely.
This article was updated following Manchester United 3-2 Newcastle United and Brighton 1-2 Chelsea
How does Europa League qualification work?
There are two places given to English sides in each season’s Europa League. One is given to the FA Cup winners and the other is given to the team that finishes fifth in the Premier League.
In the instance that the FA Cup winners finish in the Premier League top five, the Europa League position is given to the sixth-placed team.
Tottenham, Newcastle and Chelsea supporters will be cheering on Manchester City in the FA Cup final (James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images)
Tottenham are fifth in the table heading into the final day but can be caught by sixth place Chelsea if they lose to Sheffield United and Chelsea beat Bournemouth.
As for the FA Cup, the final will be played between Manchester City and Manchester United for the second successive year.
If Manchester City win it, the sixth-placed team in the Premier League will qualify for the Europa League. If United win the FA Cup, they will play in the Europa League next season.
What about the Conference League?
Only one English team plays in the Conference League each season.
The rules state that the Carabao Cup winners are given that Conference League spot. But, in every season since Europe’s third-tier club competition started in 2021, that place has been deferred to the Premier League table because of the Carabao Cup winners finishing in the top six, and therefore securing a spot in the Europa League or the Champions League via their league finish.
Liverpool won this season’s Carabao Cup final back in February (Julian Finney/Getty Images)
This season’s FA Cup final therefore presents a potentially interesting twist. If Manchester City win on May 25, the Conference League spot will go to the team which finishes seventh in the Premier League.
But if Manchester United win, and finish outside of the top six, the sixth-placed team will get the place. If United win the FA Cup and finish in the top six, it will again go to the team in seventh.
The state of play
Despite their awful form, Tottenham should still finish fifth. They need just a point from their final-day trip to Sheffield United to stay where they are.
If they lose at Bramall Lane, Chelsea can only go above them by winning their final game.
Newcastle’s run of four wins in five games, which had put them back in the mix for a Europa League place, came to an end on Saturday with a disappointing home draw against Brighton & Hove Albion. They were then beaten 3-2 by Manchester United to slip down into seventh, with Manchester United moving level on points with them.
Chelsea’s 3-2 win at Forest was their third in a row in the Premier League (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
Manchester United remain eighth by virtue of their -3 goal difference, which may prove decisive in missing out on European football next season.
Erik ten Hag’s side need an immediate upturn in form and slip-ups from the teams above to make it into either the Europa League or Conference League — or to secure an unlikely FA Cup victory with a win over Manchester City in the final…
GO DEEPER
Manchester United and the double-edged sword of qualifying for the Conference League
Remaining fixtures
Sunday, May 19
- Brentford vs Newcastle
- Brighton vs Manchester United
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth
- Sheffield United vs Tottenham
(Top photo: Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)