Borussia Dortmund have secured an extra Champions League spot for the Bundesliga next season, confirming the Premier League misses out on a fifth place in the competition.
Italy had secured one of the two extra berths already and Germany confirmed what appeared certain going into Wednesday night, with Dortmund’s 1-0 win over Paris Saint-Germain putting them into an unassailable position behind Italy in the coefficient standings.
England’s poor performance this season across European competitions has left them third in the coefficient table. Only the top four finishers in the Premier League will qualify for the Champions League.
Even if Aston Villa were to beat Olympiakos in both legs of their Europa Conference League semi-finals and then defeat Fiorentina or Club Brugge in the final, England needed the remaining German teams – Bayern Munich, Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen – to lose all their games to overtake Germany.
England has finished in the top two of the coefficient table in six of the last seven seasons but the Premier League currently has their lowest coefficient total since 2016/17 – and it would have been an even lower but for the introduction of the Europa Conference League in 2021/22.
France, in fourth, have also seen their slim hopes of leapfrogging Germany ended.
In the coefficient standings, a win is worth two points, a draw one and there are also bonus points for reaching certain stages of competitions.
Italy could end up with six teams competing at European football’s top table next season. That would occur if Atalanta, who are sixth in Serie A, remain outside of the top five and win the Europa League.
How does the new Champions League format work?
Taking the total number of teams from 32 to 36 in the Champions League, the biggest change will see a transformation from the traditional group stage to a single league phase including all participating teams.
Every club will now be guaranteed a minimum of eight league-stage games against eight different opponents (four home games, four away) rather than the previous six matches against three teams, played on a home-and-away basis.
The top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the knockout stage, while the teams finishing in ninth to 24th place will compete in a two-legged play-off to secure their path to the last 16 of the competition.
How many European spots will England have next season?
The lack of an extra Champions League spot for England means a maximum of seven Premier League teams will be in Europe next season. It is now likely that Tottenham and Aston Villa will compete for the final Champions League place across the remaining fixtures.
Had an extra place been granted, the European places could have dropped as low as eighth in the division.
But instead, seventh place is not technically a European qualification berth. It is dependent on the outcome of the FA Cup final as well as Manchester United‘s end to the campaign.
Liverpool‘s Carabao Cup triumph means sixth place is currently the Europa Conference League qualification spot. However, that will drop to seventh should the FA Cup winners have already qualified for Europe.
The FA Cup winners are granted a Europa League place. Manchester City are already guaranteed European football for next season based on league position so should they prevail against United, the Europa League place will be passed down to sixth and seventh will be granted the Conference League spot.
The same goes if fellow finalists United finish in the top six. But if Erik ten Hag’s side were to win the FA Cup and finish seventh, sixth place would get Conference League and United would get Europa League qualification.
If the Red Devils lift the cup and finish outside of the top seven, sixth will get Conference League and seventh will not qualify for European competition.
What if Villa win Conference League and finish in top four?
If Aston Villa go on to win the Conference League, they will qualify automatically for the Europa League, but this will be superseded by a place in next season’s Champions League if they finish in the top four of the Premier League.
There would not be an additional European spot handed to England via league finish in this scenario. If Villa win the Conference league, the Europa League spot isn’t used, and qualifying is rebalanced.
The team with the best coefficient in the qualifying rounds goes to the group stage, and the qualifying rounds are rebalanced so they feed into the correct number of ties for the final round.
As it stands
Champions League: Manchester City (80pts), Arsenal (79), Liverpool (75), Aston Villa (67)
Europa League: Tottenham (60), Manchester United (54)
Europa Conference League: Newcastle (53)
Eighth place: Chelsea (510
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