Two hundred tanks could form 20 tank companies or seven battalions. That’s enough to fully equip seven mechanised brigades, or partially equip 20 mechanised brigades. At present, there’s evidence that Leopard 1A5s and 1A5DKs equip the Ukrainian army’s 44th Mechanised Brigade and 5th Tank Brigade – and Leopard 1A5BEs equip the 59th Motorised Brigade.
But it seems these brigades have single tank companies instead of full battalions. The brigades are, in other words, under-strength in tanks. And it could be many months before there are enough Leopard 1A5s in Ukraine to bring the units up to their full tank complement.
The Leopard 1A5s are very late. And it’s no secret why.
Ukraine rejected a batch of 10 Leopard 1A5s owing to the tanks’ poor material condition. Similarly, several other Leopard 1A5s that arrived in Ukraine last summer immediately broke down. German officials determined that the tanks wore out during intensive, two-week training courses for Ukrainian crews.
The Leopard 1A5s were in worse shape than the German-Danish-Dutch consortium – not to mention Ukraine – expected. And German industry wasn’t ready to repair a lot of broken tanks, fast.
Part of the problem is a serious shortage of spare parts for tanks – and not just Leopard 1A5s. The same shortage also afflicts Ukraine’s battle-damaged Leopard 2s. The parts problem is so serious that, in September, the Brazilian army suspended a plan to upgrade its own Leopard 1A5s. The Brazilians cited the “global demand for tank parts.”
That Germany has resumed shipping Leopard 1A5s is good news – even if they’re shipping in tiny numbers. But the resumption of deliveries doesn’t make the tanks any less late. It turns out that, when it comes to equipping Ukraine’s tank corps, talk is cheap – and tank repairs are expensive.
The Leopard 1A5 debacle shines a light on the deep rot in the European defense industry, 33 years after the fall of the Soviet Union ushered in an illusory era of peace that, in the minds of many European politicians and officials, justified deep cuts in defense spending. Those cuts gutted key industries, including the industries designing, building and maintaining armoured vehicles.
More than two years into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, Europe is scrambling to resuscitate these industries – not only for the sake of Ukraine’s war effort, but also to support the expansion and modernisation of armoured forces in European armies. We’ll know the industries are healthy again when they can deliver rebuilt Leopard 1A5s to Ukraine in a timely manner.