Thursday, September 19, 2024

Germany’s debt brake and the art of fantasy budgeting

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Like A SQUIRMING Harry Houdini, Germany’s government has once again wriggled its way out of a straitjacket it applied to itself. On July 5th, having blown through one self-imposed deadline to conclude a draft budget for 2025, the coalition’s negotiators pulled an all-nighter to avoid missing a second. The result, said a bleary-eyed Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, was a “work of art”.

That may be pushing it. But in the run-up to the talks, estimates had circulated of a fiscal gap of over €40bn ($43bn, about 1% of GDP) for the year. Closing it came close to blowing up the government. But in the end money was found for various pet projects and even some tax breaks. If the budget is not as austere as some had feared, that is in part because Christian Lindner, the finance minister, belied his reputation as Germany’s fiscal hawk-in-chief with a quiet flexibility in negotiation.

Chart: The Economist

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