Manchester United currently lie in eighth position in the Premier League, competing with Tottenham Hotspur, Newcastle United and Chelsea for possible qualification for European competition.
United’s highest possible league position from their remaining three fixtures could see them qualify for the Europa League. Their lowest could see them finish outside the league positions needed for European qualification. The middle ground provides an interesting conundrum: qualification for the Europa Conference League.
UEFA’s tertiary competition, which will simply be called the Conference League next season, has offered a chance for teams outside the super-elite to compete for glory. Next season, that invitation may be offered to Manchester United. Liverpool’s victory in this season’s Carabao Cup means entry into the Conference League’s play-off round reverts to the highest-placed Premier League team that is not otherwise in Europe.
If Erik ten Hag’s side fail to win the FA Cup final on May 25 and finish in seventh rather than eighth place, they could face a two-legged tie on August 22 and 29* for a spot in the new revamped “League Stage” of the Conference League.
Some United fans might prefer to avoid competing in a third-tier competition, reasoning that playing one game a week would allow for greater training time, allowing Ten Hag to develop his team further. There are others who would relish the opportunity to travel to some of Europe’s lesser-known football sites, with United getting an opportunity to win silverware in an era where they have not been as successful as they would have hoped.
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Here’s a look at how United’s possible participation in the Conference League could work and reasons why engaging in such a competition would be a double-edged sword.
*The 2024-25 Conference League remains somewhat of a moveable feast at time of writing. Some of the dates included in this piece are provisional and could be subject to change.
The Conference League Group stages will be finished before Christmas
No team directly qualify for the 36-team League Stage of the Conference League. Several sides must first compete in a series of qualifier rounds (the first round starts July 11 — a day before the Euro 2024 final).
United’s potential qualification for the Conference League would depend on their performance in a two-legged play-off tie in August. As the prospective English qualifier for the competition, they will be included in the “Main Path” of qualifiers, with a still-to-be-determined seeding for the play-offs but one that should see them avoid any of the six teams that entered Conference League qualification due to being eliminated in the Europa League third qualifying round.
A prospective European game five days after the start of the new Premier League season may make for wince-inducing reading, but if United are successful in reaching the 2024-25 League Stage, they would not have to begin their European exploits proper until Gameweek One, on October 3, 2024. United would also finish with their continental exploits earlier than English teams in the two other competitions. The reworked format of UEFA competitions will see the Champions League and Europa League not have their final League Stage matchday until January. In contrast, the final League Stage matchday of the Conference League takes place on December 19, 2024.
An early start and earlier finish to the League Stage rounds of the Conference League would leave Ten Hag with additional time to assess his squad and make proper plans for the January transfer window. English clubs competing in the Champions League and Europa League will be unable to register any January signings to their European squads as their League Stages will still be ongoing.
Furthermore, if United were to qualify for the Conference League and have a top-eight finish in the League Stage, they would not have to return to Conference League competition until March 6 and 13, 2025, for the round-of-16 games. A less successful League Stage could see them feature in a two-legged knockout play-off in February.
The Conference League comes with many potential pitfalls for a club of United’s size
To address the most obvious elephant in the room, United’s club size and stature would stick out like a sore thumb in the Conference League.
When West Ham visited Old Trafford in February, away fans chanted, “Conference League winners, you’ll never sing that” as a tongue-in-cheek jibe. This month, the club was named the world’s most valuable football club, estimated at $6.2billion (£4.96bn).
United want to be in the Champions League and bask in the glory, glamour and revenues that come with it. UEFA’s redesign of all three European competitions was partially fuelled by clubs like United pushing for a bigger slice of the competition’s pie. The forthcoming League Stage format should, in theory, protect against the implosions that saw United exit the 2023-24 Champions League early after only managing one victory in six group-stage matches.
There are many reasons why it may be preferable for United to avoid European competition outright, rather than compete in the Conference League.
From a financial perspective, while there are some benefits from hosting additional matches at Old Trafford (the club is thought to generate somewhere between £2m-£4m in matchday revenue with every home game), the monetary sums handed out after winning Conference League games are relatively small compared to those found in the Europa and Champions League. Travel and accommodation costs involved in away games, coupled with possible win bonuses handed to players on higher contracts, mean United would have to make a deep run into the tournament for it to be seen as an unqualified success by club accountants.
United finished bottom of their Champions League group this season (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
Last season, Ten Hag explained his preference for the Champions League as a matter of not only competing against the best sides but also one of fixture decongestion. The Dutchman believes the Tuesday/Wednesday midweek schedule gives him greater time to prepare for Premier League weekend fixtures compared to the Thursday-Sunday routine that comes with the Europa and Conference competition.
Historically, the United manager historically has not been a fan of rotating his squads, preferring to play his strongest XI where possible to build the “routines” and playing chemistry of his side further.
United’s possible participation in Europe’s third-tier competition would see them painted as one of the competition’s bigger — if not the biggest — fish. Opposition teams are likely to increase their efforts in the hope of earning famous victories over United. If Ten Hag or his players take their foot off the gas in any games in the tournament, there’s huge potential for embarrassment at a time when the club are looking to spare some blushes.
However, the competition can be an opportunity to build some positive momentum
Ten Hag entered this season wanting to turn United into the best transition team in the world. His side are currently trying to stave off one of the worst regressive slumps it has encountered in a decade.
Possible qualification into the Conference League would rubber stamp the annus horribilis that was 2023-24. Still, participation in the competition could offer an alternative avenue for new and old players to acclimatise themselves with any tactical adaptions the United manager brings to next season.
The club sorely needs to get back into the habit of winning games again and, while the Conference League comes with a variety of hazards, there is always merit in taking things learned on the training ground and testing them in proper competition. Winning begets more winning and a successful run through the League Stage of UEFA’s tertiary competition offers United a good opportunity to build positive momentum at the start of 2024-25.
United’s task this summer is to recognise the gap between their potential and reality and put proper systems in place to close that gap. The Conference League could provide a chance to test those systems. Yet it could also be an unnecessary spanner in those works.
(Top photo: Peter Powell/AFP via Getty Images)