Seventh but no Europe.
Somewhat fittingly a season of extremes at Newcastle United ended with a week that summed up the rollercoaster. After toasting seventh at Brentford and a job well done, Eddie Howe and his coaching staff were in transit when Manchester United’s FA Cup win robbed them of a European place they were desperate to get.
So what does it really mean for the club?
Pressure on Eddie Howe from the outset
The word from St James’ Park is that insiders still believe the club is “ahead of schedule”. Seventh place and going deep in two domestic competitions was slightly above par considering the mitigation of injuries, some tricky cup draws and the Champions League learning curve.
But next season they will get a clear run at the Premier League and two other trophies and that means expectations will rise. Full weeks on the training ground – something that was missing earlier in the season, when the team occasionally didn’t train at all between games – have to bring improvements to areas where Newcastle struggled last season.
Inevitably, it means Howe will enter his third full season with elevated expectations now that the demands of European football are gone. A minimum requirement will be to ensure missing out on Europe is a one-off – they must also be in the conversation for the top four and challenging for a trophy if momentum is to be regained on Tyneside.
Howe was never, at any point, under pressure at Newcastle despite some of the external noise. But he will know that struggling next season will invite more scrutiny.
Slimline squad – and contract calls become clearer
Newcastle’s summer transfer mantra has always been to bring in quality rather than quantity but missing out on Europe could alter contract decisions on fringe players.
The feeling has always been that Howe would like to retain Matt Ritchie – a ferocious trainer who maintains high levels of professionalism despite limited first-team opportunities – and Paul Dummett but with no midweek games, the decision is surely made for the club. Of the five senior players out of contract in the summer, only Mark Gillespie – a fourth-choice goalkeeper – looks likely to remain.
It also focuses minds round some of those Newcastle would listen to offers from – and the large crop of players approaching the last 12 months of their contracts.
Dan Burn, Martin Dubravka, Kieran Trippier and Callum Wilson are among seven players out of contract next summer. Newcastle can now make decisions on those players this summer without anxiety around having a squad big enough to deal with the demands of professional football through the autumn and winter.
A possible PSR dilemma
There is no doubt it has been a costly three weeks for Newcastle. Just over a fortnight ago Europa League football was a realistic prospect and with improved prize funds and uplifts in some of their key sponsorship deals, it would have made Newcastle’s goal of doubling commercial revenue every two years look more attainable.
If the Europa Conference League was much less lucrative – football finance expert Kieran Maguire tells i only a run to the quarter or semi-finals would have added substantially to Newcastle’s bottom line – it did bring prestige and eyeballs on the club that would have helped them attract sponsors.
As it is Newcastle know there is little prospect of loosening the tight constraints placed on them by profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) this summer. They will have to player trade to do the sort of deals they’re targeting.
Sales pitch needs to be pitch perfect
Newcastle’s ambitions are to bring in players who can make a difference – three or four “high impact” signings are the plan – but the sales pitch to the likes of Crystal Palace winger Michael Olise becomes harder with no European football to offer. One source told i two things are likely to get Newcastle in the conversation for top players: paying above the going rate and providing a clear pathway to the Champions League in the next two years.
So Newcastle need to dust off and update the sales pitch that convinced Bruno Guimaraes to sign for them when they were in a relegation battle. It is a job for the new director of football, if they can expedite a process that has been delayed indefinitely by Dougie Freedman’s rejection.
Won’t make a material difference to Bruno Guimaraes or Alexander Isak
There was a feeling that European football was important to Newcastle for reasons that can’t be quantified on a balance sheet. Getting used to the rhythm of two games in a week, European travel and the demands of balancing that with the Premier League would have been good for the club’s growth.
But for the most pressing of all of Newcastle’s short-term concerns – the future of Guimaraes – it is of negligible concern.
The Brazil international wants to be playing in Europe, like his teammates, but the rules of engagement haven’t really changed. Whether Newcastle had Europa League or Europa Conference League football, his future is likely to be dictated by whether Arsenal or Manchester City trigger his £100m release clause before the end of June. If they don’t, his exit becomes much less likely – even without European football.
If either club does – and that is still clouded by massive uncertainty, with neither making contact with Newcastle yet – you suspect he will push for the move. That would have been the same whatever happened in that disappointing final fortnight of the campaign.
As for Alexander Isak, it is almost overwhelmingly likely that he will be the man spearheading Newcastle’s bid to return to Europe in short order.