US jobs data on Friday will be pivotal for investors betting that the country’s labour market is cooling, clearing the path for interest rate cuts next year.
Non-farm payroll figures are expected to show US employers added 180,000 new roles last month, up from 150,000 in October.
Anything higher would “challenge the market’s consensus” that rate cuts will begin early next year, said Julien Lafargue at Barclays Private Bank.
Last month’s data “was a game-changer” for investors as it suggested the labour market is cooling, said Michael Metcalfe of State Street.
“It’s important that November’s report shows that wasn’t a fluke and the labour market has in fact turned. The market certainly thinks it has, but we need confirmation,” he said.
Traders are pricing in as many as five quarter-point interest rate cuts next year.