When UEFA first announced its revamped plans for the future of the Champions League, including an extra place each for the nations whose teams perform best in European competition across the course of every season, it seemed inevitable that even more power would be bestowed upon the continent’s wealthiest division.
The top end Premier League clubs, of course, possess deep squads with alternative options in every single position, hire the most sought-after coaches, and spend eyewatering amounts of money every summer which far outstrip the outlay of their rivals in Spain, Italy, Germany, and beyond.
Surely they would always perform well enough to secure a fifth seat at Europe’s top table year after year.
Not the case, as it turns out. The standard four English clubs will participate in the inaugural running of the new Champions League format next season, with Germany and Italy having been awarded the bonus spots instead.
Why? Because English teams in Europe in 2023-24 delivered one of their worst ever seasons.
For the first time in ten years, no English side reached the semi-finals of either the Champions League or Europa League, with German and Italian clubs outclassing their English counterparts by a comfortable margin in the end.
What happened to the Premier League clubs in Europe?
The individual reasons for that mediocre collective performance vary. Newcastle United and Brighton are inexperienced in elite competition and were eliminated by more savvy teams, while West Ham were knocked out by Xabi Alonso’s eventual Europa League finalists Bayer Leverkusen, and Liverpool were tactically outsmarted by first-time winners Atalanta.
Manchester United were woeful for the majority of the season, especially in midfield, and deservedly finished bottom of their Champions League group, while Arsenal were perhaps overly cautious against one of the most disappointing Bayern Munich teams in years, and Manchester City were undone by Real Madrid’s inimitable blend of immense experience and irrepressible self-belief.
In the third-tier Conference League, even the prestigious European experience of manager Unai Emery couldn’t stop Aston Villa being totally outplayed over two legs by Olympiacos of Greece.
Despite the intricacies, though, there were perhaps a couple of commonalities between some of these cases, including tactical under preparedness against ‘smaller’ but well-coached opposition, and failure to press home an advantage when dominating games against higher level opponents.
Could England fall foul of the same issues?
Though the differences between club and international football are stark in many ways, there are some similarities between the Premier League clubs’ shortcomings and the position England find themselves in as they head off to Euro 2024 in Germany – after all, 18 of manager Gareth Southgate’s 26-man squad were playing for Premier League sides in Europe this season.
England begin the tournament as favourites, as Premier League clubs did in all three of this year’s European tournaments, and a significant weight of expectation is on their shoulders after coming up short in their past three tournaments under Southgate.
That favourites status is borne of a number of elements: their run to the final in the previous edition of the tournament, the excellent attacking options Southgate has at his disposal, and the fact that a plethora of key players are in what could be considered their prime.
Should England really be Euros favourites?
The odds fail to take into account some key factors. England are in very poor form, primarily, having won only two their past six fixtures (against Malta and Bosnia & Herzegovina). Furthermore, though Southgate has chosen a bold and dynamic squad with an emphasis on youth and club-level form, he has ended up with a disparate group which has little experience of playing alongside one another.
And even as the tournament is about to begin, his starting eleven remains unsettled and players like Kieran Trippier and Trent Alexander-Arnold are likely to start play in positions they are unaccustomed to.
That all could leave them vulnerable to some of the things which the English clubs succumbed to in Europe.
Are tactics a concern?
That unfamiliarity in the starting eleven and wider squad could be a problem against smart opponents with a more settled system, as some of the Premier League clubs found this season.
England are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 for their opening game against Serbia in Gelsenkirchen on Sunday, with Trippier at left-back and Alexander-Arnold partnering Declan Rice in a midfield two. Trippier played that role once for England in the qualifiers, having never done so before in his three previous tournaments with the team, while Alexander-Arnold has not played in a double pivot midfield in his entire career.
The Three Lions will come up against Serbia and Denmark in their opening fixtures, two teams who operate in a three-at-the-back system which England have not faced often in recent years. In the knockout rounds England could come up against a team like Hungary, who qualified for the tournament by conceding only seven goals in eight matches using their own 3-5-2 shape.
Alonso’s Leverkusen succeeded this season with a 3-4-3 shape that hinged on the pace and technical quality of the wide forwards and an ability to combine intelligent use of the ball with quick countering, while Atalanta’s 3-4-1-2 in which they essentially miss out their midfield to break at speed completely bamboozled Liverpool.
Given England have already lost to Iceland in their final warmup match, strong knowledge of the setup of the theoretically ‘smaller’ nations and the intricacies of their playing styles must improve.
What about against the bigger teams?
England have suffered defeats in their previous tournaments under Southgate which were in a sense akin to Manchester City and Arsenal’s eliminations in Europe this season – when they were in the ascendency against strong opposition they failed to make it count and allowed the other team to execute their own gameplan.
Southgate’s men led against both Croatia in 2018 and Italy in 2021 before equalising and having the majority of possession against France in 2022.
Ultimately, they ended up losing by conceding goals which were fairly typical of their opponents’ respective gameplans.
They will have to right that particular wrong which they already have in common if they are to finally bring home a trophy this time around.
Can wider experience help?
A key factor England do have in their favour is the fact that the team’s two most important players, captain Harry Kane and midfielder Jude Bellingham, were playing in other European leagues this season and went further in continental competition than their domestic colleagues.
This will be the first time since the 2006 World Cup (Real Madrid’s David Beckham and Bayern Munich’s Owen Hargreaves) that two players based abroad will likely play a majority of minutes for England at an international tournament, and that experience of playing against different kinds of players and tactical systems will no doubt be a significant benefit.
It is quite rare that trends cross over between European and international football, but it will do Southgate and England no harm to be aware of what led to one the Premier League’s weakest ever continental showings, and to have planned ways around any similar problems that they may come across.
This is now a coaching staff with plenty of experience preparing for and undertaking major tournaments. With a squad as talented as this at their disposal, falling at the same quarter-final hurdle which tripped up the English clubs in the Champions League and Europa League would not just be a disappointment, but a failure which would no doubt lead to a change of leadership.
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