European Championship | Final
Jul 14, 2024 at 8pm UK
Olympiastadion Berlin
We say: Spain 2-1 England
Southgate has already conceded that nothing less than perfection will do for England if they are to end 58 years of hurt in the senior men’s game, but Three Lions fans have not witnessed perfection from their beloved crop in Germany over the past few weeks; far from it in fact.
Once the Netherlands beefed up their midfield in the semi-final, England once again struggled for attacking ingenuity until the devastating Palmer and Watkins link-up, and a similar story could arise from the first whistle with the omnipresent Rodri at work.
A solitary goal should still come England’s way, as De la Fuente’s defence is far from watertight, but Spain’s fledgling attackers should once again prove too hot to handle, even for a menacing England backline. As was the case at Wembley three years ago, Sunday’s final will likely end in tears of misery for the Three Lions, as La Roja become the most successful team in the history of the European Championships.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Spain win with a probability of 45.63%. A win for England has a probability of 28.62% and a draw has a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest England win is 0-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.25%).
| Result | ||
| Spain | Draw | England |
| 45.63% | 25.76% | 28.62% |
| Both teams to score 52.4% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| Spain | Draw | England |
| 1-0 @ 10.87%
2-1 @ 9.15% 2-0 @ 8.12% 3-1 @ 4.55% 3-0 @ 4.04% 3-2 @ 2.56% 4-1 @ 1.7% 4-0 @ 1.51% 4-2 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.17% Total : 45.63% |
1-1 @ 12.25%
0-0 @ 7.28% 2-2 @ 5.15% 3-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.76% |
0-1 @ 8.21%
1-2 @ 6.9% 0-2 @ 4.62% 1-3 @ 2.59% 2-3 @ 1.94% 0-3 @ 1.74% Other @ 2.62% Total : 28.62% |
Who will win Sunday’s European Championship final between Spain and England?
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