Sunday, December 22, 2024

Starmer has a golden opportunity to reset relations with Europe

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The writer is director of UK in a Changing Europe, a think-tank

If you’re as old as me, you’ll remember it well. A new prime minister, beaming from ear to ear, charming fellow European leaders and beating them all as they cycled through the streets of Amsterdam. Tony Blair’s diplomatic debut was an unalloyed triumph. Twenty-seven years on, another new Labour prime minister has a chance to shine among his neighbours, this time on home soil. 

The European Political Community — that travelling circus of 47 European states — arrives at Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire on Thursday. Sir Keir Starmer will be chairing it.

The informality of EPC meetings and their role as a “European Davos” makes them ideal for snatching those crucial bilaterals with other leaders — and that matters all the more because existing UK-EU treaties make no provision for political meetings between the two sides. And there will be no squabbling over the final communique because there is no communique.

The meeting will give Starmer a chance to showcase a “reset” of UK relations with its neighbours. Labour’s manifesto, remember, pledged to make the UK a “leading nation in Europe once again, with an improved and ambitious relationship with our European partners”.

Tone matters, and it will be striking — and perhaps a little discombobulating — to watch the interactions with his European peers of a prime minister who does not see the relationship with the EU as inherently competitive or zero sum. Arguably not since Blair himself have we had a government so keen to improve relations across the Channel. What is more, the summit’s timing could hardly be better from a UK government perspective. Domestically, Starmer rules supreme. While the machinations of Conservative leadership candidates provide some light relief, they matter not a jot for national policy.

Meanwhile, with war raging in Europe and the world feeling ever more unstable, Britain’s case for tighter security relations with its neighbours is only strengthened.

Words aside, the ultimate test of Starmer’s success at Blenheim will be twofold. First, the degree to which he can translate good will into substantive progress. The devil will be in the detail: can the UK persuade the EU to relax rules blocking British participation in schemes such as the European Defence Fund that are intended to foster greater collaboration in the development of military capabilities? 

Equally, while the manifesto talked of “tearing down unnecessary barriers to trade”, we do not yet know whether this will be possible. Will the EU be willing to negotiate at all? If so, might it go the extra mile to help a prime minister who has proved his desire to restore trust and build closer ties? Will talks over a veterinary agreement drag on as the European Commission haggles over minutiae? Will the EU’s mantra of “strategic autonomy” continue to force it to view the UK as a competitor and a rival? 

But Starmer will also be judged on his ability to win the argument at home. Any practical steps the government takes towards closer relations with the EU must be future proofed so any later Tory government is not tempted to reverse them. That would also reassure EU negotiators that they are not wasting their time. 

For all his charm, Blair ultimately failed the latter test. After not managing to persuade his own chancellor of the merits of the euro, he promised to run a campaign to persuade the British public of the benefits of EU membership. This never materialised, and we are living with the consequences.

Blenheim represents a golden opportunity to begin Labour’s reset with the EU. But a change in tone, while welcome, is merely the precursor to the real work. Winning the bike race is not enough.

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