Supercomputer predicts winner and semi-final results

After almost a month of action at Euro 2024, just four teams remain in the hunt to lift the trophy and become European champions.

Tournament hosts Germany and Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal were among the teams to be eliminated in the last round as England, Spain, France and the Netherlands progressed to the semi-finals.

Gareth Southgate’s England face the Dutch on Wednesday night as they look to make back-to-back European Championship finals and finally end their wait for a major trophy in men’s football.

The Three Lions are yet to hit top gear at the Euros – underwhelming in the group stage and then needing extra-time and penalties to scrape past Slovakia and Switzerland – but now find themselves just two wins away from ending 58 years of hurt.

Ronald Koeman’s Netherlands progressed to the knockouts as one of the best third-place teams before outclassing Romania and Turkey to set up a semi-final meeting with England in Dortmund.

In the other side of the draw, Spain take on France in a huge European clash at the Allianz Arena in Munich.

Opta’s supercompter has predicted the likely winners from each semi-final and revealed which team has the best chance of becoming European champions come Sunday evening.

Both semis are incredibly difficult to call, according to the data, with England given a 51.51% chance of progressing to the final as opposed to 48.49% for the Netherlands.

Spain are the marginal favourites in the other tie with a 53.51% chance of making the showpiece event in Berlin.

Interestingly, Opta’s supercomputer currently gives England just a 22.58% chance of winning Euro 2024 – with only Netherlands given less of a chance.

On Spain’s mouth-watering clash with France, analyst Tom Patey said: ‘The Opta supercomputer backed Spain as the slight favourites for this one, with La Roja winning 38.2% and France triumphing in 31.8% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

‘A draw would send this tie to extra time, as was the case in three of four quarter-finals, with that result forecast in 30% of data-led sims.’

Looking ahead to England’s match, analyst Patric Ridge added: ‘England have been clear favourites, according to the Opta supercomputer, in every match they have played at Euro 2024 so far. But that is not the case for this tie.

‘The model gives England a 37.8% chance of victory, just marginally more than the Netherlands’ 31.6%; the draw threat (so, the likelihood of a penalty shootout) is coming in at a relatively large 30.6%.’

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