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Last week’s European Union Parliamentary elections may have ended the “greenest parliament ever” but this rightward shift shouldn’t end the EU’s visionary climate policies.
When the European Commission enacted its “Fit for 55” policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 55 percent by 2030 relative to 1990, it took huge steps toward helping citizens breathe cleaner air, boosting economic competitiveness through industrial growth, cutting energy costs, and protecting against Russia’s weaponization of oil and gas.
Europe has already shown policy packages like the Green Deal can generate domestic benefits like fighting climate change, creating new jobs, and lowering dependence on hostile petrostates. As Commission President Ursula von der Leyden said, “This is an important sign to Europe and our global partners that the green transition is possible.”
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But the EU Parliament’s conservative shift could dramatically impact the future of many policies, particularly those accelerating Europe’s urgently needed clean energy transition.
Indeed, Manfred Weber, German head of center-right European People’s Party which won the most seats in this election, said one newly adopted initiative to cut dependence on expensive foreign oil by requiring new cars and vans registered in Europe to be emission-free instead of fossil-fueled by 2035 was a “mistake” that his party would consider rolling back in “upcoming days.”
But doing so would be a dire mistake for the EU; the “remedy” would actually cause pain.
Misguided rhetoric is one thing, but the Green Deal contains some of the strongest cost-cutting, job-creating, security-enhancing policies ever passed by the EU Parliament.
Backsliding on climate policy would accelerate the emissions driving dangerous extreme weather across Europe like wildfires, droughts, and flooding. It also jeopardizes huge opportunities that green technology markets are creating for European sovereignty, workers, and competitiveness.
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Analysis by Energy Innovation, the nonpartisan climate think tank where I lead policy research, shows that rolling back Fit for 55 policies will keep the EU dependent on Russian gas, increase public health hazards, sacrifice jobs, and weaken global competitiveness with other countries that are investing in clean energy manufacturing.
These inconvenient truths collide with a misleading fear-based narrative that rallies Europeans – especially farmers, industrial workers, and homeowners wary of heat pumps – against clean energy.
According to our analysis, Fit for 55 could boost the EU gross domestic product by more than €100 billion in 2030 as its policies come into effect. The package would create nearly half a million domestic jobs spanning sectors like power generation and transmission, machinery and vehicle manufacturing, and mining.
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The Green Deal will also strengthen Europe’s energy security. Our analysis projects Fit for 55 could reduce natural gas use by 26 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2030, or 60 percent of the amount imported from Russia last year (43 bcm). Repealing the package would hinder the bloc’s intentions to reduce dependence on Moscow for imported fossil fuels. Why delay a transition toward lasting energy security?
Each facet of the EU’s climate policies has distinct benefits that would be lost if they were stripped from the whole.
For example, the Fit for 55 policy cutting tailpipe fossil fuel pollution from cars and trucks would lower levels of particulate matter and nitrogen oxides that cause heart disease, smog, and acid rain. Our research found repealing the standards could cause nearly a million additional asthma attacks and more than 30,000 premature deaths through 2030. Why stop cleaner air and healthier lungs?
Another Green Deal keystone, the Renewable Energy Directive, aims to nearly double Europe’s share of energy from renewables by 2030. We found repealing it would cost 85 percent of potential GDP growth this decade while increasing fossil-fuel dependence and leaking jobs to other countries. Why ignore a generational domestic economic opportunity?
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Still another Green Deal policy would strengthen Europe’s carbon pricing and annual emissions cap mechanism incentivizing polluters to accelerate their transition to green energy. We found repealing this measure would cost the EU more than 250,000 jobs by 2030. Why say no to a quarter million good jobs?
All these impacts come atop billions of tons of greenhouse gas pollution that Fit for 55 will prevent, which will help fight the growing menace of climate change.
This is the wrong moment to water down or abandon efforts to cut greenhouse gases. Many of the most alarming scientific predictions about climate warming shocks – more intense destructive extreme weather that imperils livelihoods, rising seawaters that threaten cities, brutal heatwaves that cripple agriculture and harm human health – have become reality. Europe could lead the global movement to begin to reverse these impacts.
Further, remaining dependent on imported fossil fuels creates massive geopolitical and economic costs. Gas, oil, and coal are volatile commodities with prices set by often-hostile nations and they hamstring the EU’s economic competitiveness while spiking energy costs.
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And it’s certainly the wrong moment to block economic payoffs emerging from the clean energy transition: good jobs, reinvigorated manufacturing, lower consumer costs, and true energy security. Watering down clean economic policies risks losing out to other major economies on the global race to net-zero.
On the contrary, if the new parliament is serious about protecting its citizens and economy, now’s the moment to double down. Adopting the Commission’s proposal to reduce emissions 90 percent by 2040 would bolster energy security, create good jobs, clean the air, and cement the EU’s status as an international clean energy leader.
EU leaders worried about competition with China and the United States can spur billions in new clean technology investments into the Bloc by setting a world-leading climate target
We’re already seeing that in America, where the Biden administration’s climate policies have generated hundreds of billions in new manufacturing investments, and every $1 of federal investment catalyzes $5-$6 of private investment.
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Even though many new members of the EU Parliament ran on right-wing rhetoric, citizens deserve their politicians to embrace the truth on climate and energy security. The stakes are too big to deny it.