Thursday, November 21, 2024

Ultimate Melbourne Cup form guide: Expert verdict on every runner and predicted top 4

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It’s here again – not just Australia’s greatest horse race but its biggest and most enduring cultural institution: the wonderful Melbourne Cup.

As always, the country will down tools and stop what its doing on Tuesday afternoon to watch the huge field contest the 3200m (or two miles in the old) staying test, which has not only grown in its international era into the world’s best handicap, but one of the marquee races on the planet.

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TWO-TIME WINNER’S GUIDE: Jim Cassidy runs eyes over every horse and gives tips

LEAD-UP RUNS: The pre-Cup runs you need to see, including Vauban’s jaw-dropping Royal Ascot win

ULTIMATE GUIDE: How much winner gets and the two horses punters are backing

EXPERT TIPS: See who the leading pundits, racing greats are backing

CHEAT SHEET: Why every horse can – and can’t – win the lot

Its history is entwined with the folklore of the country, its handicap conditions summing up the nation’s egalitarian spirit.

Its story is well known – first run in 1861 when won by the might Archer, and a winning stage for some of the all-time greats of the turf, such as Phar Lap (1930), Carbine (1890), Rising Fast (1954) and Makybe Diva, the only horse to win three, from 2003-05.

In keeping with modern times, when stringent new veterinary checks keep a lot of internationals away, the 24-horse field for the $8 million race is dominated by locally-trained horses, with only four trained abroad (as in Europe and Japan, not New Zealand).

But that still won’t quite warm the hearts of the traditionalists who pine for the days of an old-style, pre-internationalised Cup where, helped by the handicap system, a battler from the bush could trump a toff from the big smoke. For what’s happening now is a lot of European horses are imported here, often for stacks of cash, in the months or couple of years before the big race, since they breed superior stayers there.

On that note, there are only TWO horses in the 24-strong field bred in Australia (Vow And Declare and Right You Are, if you’re patriotic). What’s more, there are also only two from New Zealand, the country that used to love plundering our Cup. Nineteen others have either GB, IRE, or FR beside their name, to denote the country where they were bred, while there’s one from JPN.

There’s still a good bit of intrigue around some European form less familiar to those who’ve been following the lead-ups in Australia. This includes no less an entity than Vauban, who’s the favourite for the race, but hasn’t started since winning at Naas, Ireland, in early August.

Fine weather is forecast, so you shouldn’t need to consult wet track form, but then again, it is Melbourne. Also don’t be too put off by the comparatively low prizemoney of the English and Irish visitors. Prizemoney is pretty poor there.

Let’s dive right in.

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OFFICE SWEEP: Free 2023 Melbourne Cup online sweep generator

Flemington, Tuesday, November 7

Race 7. 3.00pm

1. GOLD TRIP

Weight: 58.5kg. Barrier: (2)

Approx BlueBet win/place odds: $7.50/$2.65

Age/sex: 7yo stallion

Career Record: (starts: wins-seconds-thirds) 24: 3-5-5

Prizemoney: $7,342,739

Trainer: Ciaron Maher/Dave Eustace; Jockey: James McDonald

At this track: 3: 2-0-0

Best long-distance form: 1st, 3200m, G1 Melbourne Cup, November 2023

One of the classiest in the race, a tough stallion imported at great cost from France in 2021, where he’d come fourth in the mighty Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Last spring, he ran a great second in the Caulfield Cup (2400m), before braining them in the big one. He has something a lot of his rivals don’t: You know he can get this testing distance. Only has 1kg more this year, and – after a moderate autumn – is back in great form. Ran a super third in the Caulfield Cup before tackling the testing drop to 2040m in the Cox Plate, where he ran a solid fifth, grinding away as if he needed more distance. Top stable, and while his rider last year Mark Zahra has chosen to ride Caulfield Cup winner Without A Fight instead of this bloke, he certainly loses nothing with his new rider: It’s only the great James McDonald, that’s all. He won in 2021 on Verry Elleegant. Good gate. Great chance again.

2. ALENQUER

56.5kg (9)

$41/$8.50

6yo gelding

18: 5-2-1

$1,502,333

Trainer: Mike Moroney; J: Damien Oliver

Track: N/A

Best long distance form: 1st – 2400m – G2 King Edward VII Stakes, Royal Ascot, June 2021

He’s a sentimental choice, as retiring three-time winner Damien Oliver’s last ride in the Cup, but he’s a practical chance as well, at big odds. Bred in France, he came here with a big reputation this year, having fared well in top company in Europe. He won a G2 at Royal Ascot over 2400m, the G1 Tatts Gold Cup over 2112m in Ireland, and was good enough to go to the grandest race in Europe, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in Paris last October. He dudded there, running ninth, then was ordinary in two autumn runs in Australia, but has dropped some hints of his class this spring. He’s had three runs this campaign, and his last-start ninth in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) – while sounding ordinary – was a decent trial for this. He raced in the last two, and – being trained for this 3200m affair – he was never going to have the zip of some others to charge home in that short 180m home straight, but he kept grinding away to finish a respectable 3.4 lengths behind the leader. The doubt is, that’s been his longest trip in all 18 starts, so he’s untried at the distance, but he’s with an astute trainer of stayers in Mike Moroney – who won this race with Brew in 2000 and was second last year with Emissary – and that Moonee Valley run suggested the 3200m at wide-open, long-straight Flemington would be a lot more to his liking. And Oliver might be retiring, but is in sparkling form after two winners on Derby Day, and knows his way around a Cup, especially from a good middle barrier. Definite each-way chance.

Champion jockey Damian Oliver will ride Alenquer in his final Melbourne Cup. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images

3. WITHOUT A FIGHT

56.5kg (16)

$8/$2.75

7yo gelding

22: 10-3-4

$4,411,620

T: Anthony and Sam Freedman; J: Mark Zahra

Track: 1: 0-0-0

Best long-distance form: 1st, 2400m, G1 Caulfield Cup, Oct 2023. 1st, 2787m (twice), York, England, G3 and Listed, June, July, 2022

Outstanding looking stayer. Had the runs on the board in England to warrant a Cup raid last year. That didn’t go so well, but he did have gate 17 and had a very tough run out wide in transit. Then transferred to top local stable and has shown his class. Scored two dominant wins at the G2 and G3 level at the Brisbane winter carnival. Came back with a fast-finishing first-up sixth in the 1800m Underwood Stakes, a G1 at WFA, then back to handicaps in the Caulfield Cup he produced a paralysing burst in the home straight to get up by a neck, trumping another tough European in West Wind Blows in a torrid last 200m. That led jockey Mark Zahra to chose him over last year’s Melbourne Cup winner Gold Trip for this race. A massive call, but he’s a good judge. Does have a tough barrier, but he should get the distance OK and is one of the main chances.

4. BREAKUP

55kg (18)

$18/$5.00

6yo stallion

22: 5-3-4

$2,200,392

T: Tatsuya Yoshioka; J: Kohei Matsuyama

Track: N/A

Best long distance form: 1st – 2500m – G2 Handicap, Tokyo, November 2022, 3rd – 3000m – G2 Set-weights; Hanshin, March 2023

A bit of a dark horse from Japan, who’s been consistent back there, and they breed a tough horse. However, his best long go was that third over 3000m, and it was only a G2. He did carry 58kg, however, and for a northern 5yo stallion to carry 55kg in this race isn’t too bad. His Caulfield Cup run was a little plain, however, when eighth, beaten almost six lengths, after enjoying a suchy run in midfield. Rough place best.

Breakup isn’t expected to place at Flemington. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images

5. VAUBAN

55kg (3)

$4.40/$1.85

6yo gelding

14: 7-3-1

$788,178

T: Willie Mullins; J: Ryan Moore

Track: N/A

Best long distance form: 1st – 2816m – BM105, Royal Ascot, June 2023 (by 7.5 lengths); 1st – 3382m – G1 Hurdle, Cheltenham, England, March 2022

Rarely has there been a foreign raider more deserving of favouritism. This bloke looks outstanding, which is why Willie Mullins – a man who’s tried many times to win our great race – locked him in for it very eagerly, very early. He’s won over jumps up to 3382m. He won two starts back over 2816m at Royal Ascot in ridiculously easy fashion – leading throughout and powering home up the long straight to bolt in by 7.5 lengths – under 61kg, on a dry track. He drops massively off that with his 55kg here. The second horse was his stablemate Absurde, who’d be rated a strong chance to win this if Vauban wasn’t in it. Also won his last start, over 2414m at Naas in August, under 61kg. He’s in the right age group as a northern hemisphere five-year-old (they get called six when they come down here). Many European favourites have had a rude shock when they’ve attempted this race. This one looks special. Plus he has one of the world’s best jockeys in England’s Ryan Moore, who won this in 2014 on Protectionist. On top of all that, he’s got a great barrier. Very hard to beat.

6. SOULCOMBE

53.5kg (4)

$11/$3.50

5yo gelding

15: 5-1-1

$792,306

T: Chris Waller; J: Joao Moreira

Track: 3: 1-1-1

Best long distance form: 1st – 2600m – Flemington, G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes, November, 2022; 1st – 2787m – York, England, Hcp, August 2022

British import for Chris Waller who’s got talent but has cost himself a couple of times. Missed the start hopelessly in the Caulfield Cup last start. Had to burn petrol to gain a spot after that, and while he made ground in the straight he weakened in the end, as you’d expect. Was slow away before that when third in the Turnbull Stakes as well. Good news is, a slow start won’t cost him that much over this 3200m trip. But he is tackling that arduous distance for the first time. Does have top jockey Joao Moreira to help, however, and a great barrier. Each way hope.

7. ABSURDE

53kg (8)

$10/$3.30

6yo gelding

15: 4-6-2

$704,905

T: Willie Mullins; J: Zac Purton

Track: N/A

Best long distance form: 1st – 2816m – Ebor Hcp, York, England, Aug 2023; 1st – 4023m – Killarney, Hurdle, May 2023

Wily Willie Mullins’s second runner, and while he looks a bit short of Vauban – having finished a 7.5 length second to him at Royal Ascot this year – he looks like a tough stayer who’ll definitely get the trip. He won that 4023m hurdle race in May when first-up from a spell and almost a year after his previous race. Tuned up well with an impressive win the Ebor last start, which is always a useful trial for this race. And he’s a very genuine horse who’s only missed a place thrice in 15 starts: one of those was his debut over 1800m, another was in a hurdle, and another in France on soft going. And that’s what he has that other Europeans don’t have: he likes dry tracks (7: 3-4-0) and doesn’t fancy the wet. Great jockey booking in Australia’s Hong Kong dominator Zac Purton, from a great barrier. He’s in the shadow of his more illustrious stablemate, but his trainer knows what he’s doing and he’s a definite each-way chance.

Absurde was drawn into a favourable barrier. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images

8. RIGHT YOU ARE

53kg (15)

$29/$7.50

7yo gelding

26: 10-4-4

$1,095,805

T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace; J: John Allen

Track: 6: 2-1-2

Best long distance form: 1st – 2400m – Listed, Mornington Cup, August 2023; 5th – 2400m – G1, Caulfield Cup, October 2023; 1st – 2000m – Flemington, Australian Cup Prelude, March 23

One of two Aussie-bred, and he’s an honest performer. Turned in a terrific run in the Caulfield Cup, when there was a fierce pace set by the leading half dozen, of which he was one. The other five weakened out as you’d expect, but this guy hung tough to run fifth. Still has to be a distance doubt, because he hasn’t been beyond 2400m, and he may lack the class of some rivals. Not for ours, especially from tricky gate, but could run top 10.

9. VOW AND DECLARE

53kg (19)

$26/$6

8yo gelding

37: 5-7-4

$7,103,920

T: Danny O’Brien; J: Billy Egan

Track: 14: 2-1-3

Best long distance form: 1st – 3200m – G1 Melbourne Cup, November 2019; 2nd – 2600m – G2 Moonee Valley Cup, Oct 2023

The other Aussie bred, the old warrior, winner in 2019, going round again for his fourth go in the Cup. He was moderate last year, finishing an 8.7 length 10th, but despite his advancing years, he’s rarely been in better form than this spring. When second-up from a spell, was ran a huge race to be second in the 2000m G1 Caulfield Stakes. That was a weight-for-age event, and this horse is universally considered a handicapper only, but he came home powerfully to beat all but the outstanding Alligator Blood. Back to handicaps, he turned in another strong trial last start when a 0.75 length second in the Moonee Valley Cup – a huge run considering he was three-wide most of the trip, and without cover for the second half of it. You know he’ll get the distance, but he is an eight-year-old, and they rarely win this race. And only five horses have won this more than once, and none four years apart. Bad gate as well. Place chance best.

10. CLEVELAND

52kg (23)

Scratched

6yo stallion

15: 3-3-0

$841,873

T: Kris Lees; J: Michael Dee

Track: N/A

Best long distance form: 1st – 2600m – G2 Moonee Valley Cup, October 2023; 1st – 3749m – Chester, England, Hcp, May 2022

Irish-bred son of a top staying sire in Camelot, who you know will get this trip (see above). In good form as shown by his second over 2600m at Randwick followed by his win in the Moonee Valley Cup, when he came home well to score by 0.75 lengths under 55.5kg. There might be a bit of a question mark on class, however. Had all the favours last start, with a nice cushy run in the middle of the field, but at least you know he’ll keep coming. Good jockey in Michael Dee, who’s been winning a lot of big races in the last year. Shocking gate though. Place.

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Cleveland copped a brutal barrier draw. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Racing Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images

11. ASHRUN

51.5kg (11)

$26/$6

8yo gelding

17: 4-3-1

$578,819

T: Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace; J: Kerrin McEvoy

Track: 4: 1-0-0

Best long distance form: 1st – 2500m – G1 Flemington Hotham Hcp (Archer Stakes), November 2020; 2nd – 3000m – G2 Deauville, France, August 2020; 2nd – 2400m – G3, Geelong Cup, October 2023

Very interesting runner. Was brought out for the Cup in 2020 by the German trainer who won it in 2014 with Protectionist, and won the Archer on the Saturday then backed up well to run 10th in the Cup, though beaten only 4.8 lengths, after going back from a horror barrier (23) and making good ground from 17th at the 400m. He transferred to Maher-Eustace after that, but was injured, and was out of action for almost three whole years until this spring. Now, he’s had three runs this campaign, the latest two a 6th in The Bart Cummings (beaten only 2.7 lengths), and then a narrow second in the Geelong Cup, beaten a neck, when he came on well in the straight. He’ll be a lot fitter for those three runs, should get the 3200m, since he was second twice in good company over 3000m in France. Eight-year-olds aren’t generally fancied in this race, but he’s still only had 17 starts in his life, so he hasn’t been used up. Good middle gate. Sneaky each-way chance.

12. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR

51.5kg (12)

$67/$17

6yo gelding

27: 7-1-2

$798,642

T: Phillip Stokes; J: Daniel Stackhouse

Track: 2: 0-0-0

Best long distance form: 1st – 3200m – G2 Adelaide Cup, March 2022; 6th – 3200m – G1 Melbourne Cup, November 2022; 3rd – 3200m – G1 Sydney Cup, April 2022

The best thing this gelding has going for him is he’ll just keep going. Loves a long trip, as evidenced by his Adelaide Cup win and those other 3200m runs listed above. He was only fourth in the Herbert Power last start over 2400m, but kept coming in the straight from second-last of the eight on the turn. And bear in mind the start before his Melbourne Cup sixth last year, he looked shocking in running 10th of 11 in The Bart Cummings. Still, he was beaten more than seven lengths in this Cup last year, a fair indicated that while he can stay all day, he’s a bit below some of these on class. OK gate. Rough place only.

13. OKITA SOUSHI

51.5kg (20)

$61/$12

6yo stallion

13: 4-2-3

$181,538

T: Joseph O’Brien; J: Dylan Gibbons

Track: N/A

Best long distance form: 1st – 3219m – Dundalk, Ireland, Set weights, February 2023; 1st – 2414m – Royal Ascot, England, Hcp, June 2023

Brought here from Ireland by Joseph O’Brien, the man who brought Rekindling to win this race in 2017. A six-year-old stallion should love this weight, since back home he’s won up to 3219m carrying 61kg. But unlike some other foreign raiders we do have some exposed form to go off: his 12th of 18 in the Caulfield Cup, beaten 10 lengths. Bad gate. Hard to have him on that.

Okita Soushi isn’t much of a chance to place. (Reg Ryan/Racing Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images

14. SHERAZ

51.5kg (22)

$91/$20

7yo gelding

23: 4-5-2

$645,502

T: Chris Waller; J: Beau Mertens

Track:

2: 0-0-0

Best long distance form: 2nd – 3200m – G1 Sydney Cup, April 2022; 1st – 3000m – Listed, Chantilly, France, June 2021

Another import for the Waller stable. He was a fair second in last year’s Sydney Cup, but that was on a bog track, which he likes, and on a dry track like he’ll likely find here, he’s 6: 0-0-1. That said, while his form this prep looks pretty drab, his last-start eighth in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) was on a dry, almost firm, track, and it wasn’t as bad as it sounds. He was 10th at the 400m, and finished less than two lengths off the lead, but most importantly he was out-sprinted by others in the straight but just kept plugging away in the straight, like he was looking for a longer trip such as this one. Cruelled by the barrier draw, however. Place hope.

15. LASTOTCHKA

51kg (21)

$21/$5.50

5yo mare

12: 4-2-1

$292,365

T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr; J: Craig Williams

Track: N/A

Best long distance form: 1st – 3100m – G3 Longchamp, France, Set weights, September 2023; 1st – 2800m – G3 Saint Cloud, France, Set Weights, October 2022

Possibly the dark horse of the field, and one of the hardest to line up. Won last start in a G3 at Longchamp over 3100m, carrying 56kg. She drops to 51kg here, which she’ll appreciate, as she’s never carried less than 55.5. Has joined a top stable out here, and has raced with distinction by winning up to 2800m in France. That was on a heavy track though, and her last start was on a soft (which was probably more like a heavy here). So the likely good rating for Flemington could be one reason to be cautious, as she’s 2: 0-0-1 on dry going. Also, she only moved here about six weeks ago and it’s harder for mares to acclimatise to a change of hemisphere than males, due to hormones. That’s why not many European mares make the trip. So, a tricky one. Good, experience jockey, but poor barrier. Place best.

16. MAGICAL LAGOON

51kg (7)

$101/$21

5yo mare

13: 3-1-0

$778,496

T: Chris Waller; J: Mark Du Plessis

Track: N/A

Best long distance form: 1st – 2400m – G1 Irish Oaks, Curragh, July 2022; 1st – 2406m – G2 Ribblesdale Sks, Set weights; Royal Ascot, England, June 2022; 6th – 2400m – G3 Geelong Cup, October 2023

This mare (contrasting Latotchka) has been here for about a year, so has had plenty of time to acclimatise to the change of hemisphere, which can be tricky for mares. She won the prestigious Irish Oaks and the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot last year, triggering the cashed-up Yulong racing and breeding empire to buy her and import her here. (They only paid about $600,000 dollars for her though, not like the $10 million they paid for Alcohol Free). She had a couple of runs in the autumn to get used to things, and has had three starts this campaign, and went OK in her last one, the Geelong Cup, under 55.5kg. She tried to lead throughout and got swamped in the last 20m to finish sixth, but only beaten a length. She’ll be fitter for that and clearly has class, but hasn’t been beyond that 2400m trip. Would surprise to see her in the placings.

Magical Lagoon doesn’t shape as a horse that will place. (Photo by Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images

17. MILITARY MISSION

51kg (5)

$23/$6

6yo gelding

27: 7-5-3

$798,895

T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott; J: Rachel King

Track: N/A

Best long distance form: 1st – 2400m – G2 Herbert Power Hcp, Caulfield, October 2023; 1st – 2300m – G3 Newcastle Cup, September 2023;

Irish-bred import who’s been here two years now and has put together his best campaign. Won the Newcastle Cup, was fourth in the G1 Metropolitan at Randwick, then won the Herbert Power showing great tenacity n the straight. Interesting prep as he hasn’t started since that day, October 14, but had a barrier trial last Wednesday to keep fit, and won it in fact. He hasn’t been beyond 2400m, but drops 6kg on what he carried last start. Good gate at least. Place.

18. SERPENTINE

51kg (1)

$41/$8.50

7yo gelding

21: 3-3-1

$919,079

T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott; J: Jye McNeil

Track: 7: 0-1-1

Best long distance form: 1st – 2420m – G1 Epsom Derby, England, Set weights, July 2020; 3rd – 2520m – G3 Flemington, The Bart Cummings (Hcp), Oct 2023

Another interesting runner, as a winner of one of the world’s most prestigious races, the English Derby, in 2020. He came here last year and lost a lot of form, except for his second in the Archer Stakes last Derby Day. He then went into the Melbourne Cup as a mildly respected $31 chance, but was essentially pulled up. This year, he’s gone better. Was fourth over 2500m here two runs back, then third in The Bart Cummings. That’s the furthest he’s been, but he kept grinding toward the line, suggesting he’ll get 3200m. Gai Waterhouse gave a big spruik to his chances last week. She does that for all of her horses, mind you, but her comment that you just get a feeling when a horse is coming good might have some validity, for you do have to have some class inside you to win an English Derby, and it can take Europeans a while to get used to Australia. Good jockey who won this brilliantly with a front-running ride in 2020, and he might lead on this bloke too, especially having drawn a great gate in one. Each-way chance.

19. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE

51kg (6)

$101/$21

4yo stallion

13: 2-2-1

$687,700

T: Liam Howley; J: Craig Newitt

Track: 3: 0-0-0

Best long distance form: 2nd – 2400m – G1 ATC Derby, Randwick, April 2023

NZ-bred who ran a fair second in the Derby at Randwick in April, beaten 0.8 lengths. However, form has been pretty rotten this campaign, with his best effort a last start eighth of 13 in the Geelong Cup. Looking elsewhere.

Virtuous Circle has been in rotten form as of late. (Photo by Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images

20. MORE FELONS

50.5kg (23)

$29/$7.50

5yo gelding

14: 4-2-0

$193,746

T: Chris Waller; J: Jamie Kah

Track: N/A

Best long distance form: 1st – 3298m – Cheltenham, England, Hurdle, November 2022; 2nd – 2816m – G3 York, England, Set weights, July 2023; 5th – 2400m – G3 Geelong Cup, October 2023

Interesting runner who will get the trip, having gone over hurdles a lot in England at distances up to 3400m. Showed he was handy on the flat too three starts back when a narrow second in that York 2816m race, carrying 57kg. Had first Australian run in the Geelong Cup and caught the eye coming from way back. He was only fifth, but was only half a length off the winner in a busy finish. Provided he copes with Cup day pressure, he’d be a definite chance given his tiny weight. But that outside gate is a killer.

21. FUTURE HISTORY

50kg (13)

$19/$5.50

6yo gelding

16: 6-4-1

$585,188

T: Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace; J: Hollie Doyle

Track: 1: 1-0-0

Best long distance form: 1st – 2520m – G3 Flemington, The Bart Cummings, October, 2023; 3rd – 2500m – G2 Moonee Valley Cup, October 2023

British-bred from the crack Maher-Eustace yard and will appreciate drop in weight after carrying 56kg to his solid third in the Moonee Valley Cup last start. Before that won his ticket into this race by taking The Bart Cummings over 2520m, in his only look at this track. Still, that’s the furthest he’s raced over, and he may lack the class of some rivals. Has a young English rider having her first go in the Melbourne Cup, which could be a drawback. Place best.

22. INTERPRETATION

50kg (17)

$81/$18

6yo gelding

10: 3-0-1

$242,850

T: Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace; J: Teo Nugent

Track: 6: 0-0-1

Best long distance form: 1st – 2400m – G3 Bendigo Cup, November 2023; 1st – 2816m – Leopardstown, Listed, Ireland, August 2021

Irish-bred son of the great stallion Galileo who was brought out last year and failed to finish in Melbourne Cup at long odds. Has looked a little bit better this prep, especially last start when he squeezed into the field for this after winning the Bendigo Cup last Wednesday. Did only win that by a nose though. This is a lot tougher, and his Flemington record isn’t great, but he does drop 4.5kg and carries precious little. Was fourth in a French G2 once over 3000m, so could nab a place. Tough barrier though.

23. KALAPOUR

50kg (14)

$61/$12.00

7yo gelding

18: 5-3-4

$588,074

T: Kris Lees; J: Zac Lloyd

Track: 1: 1-0-0

Best long distance form: 1st – 2500m – Flemington Archer Stakes, November 2023; 3rd – 2400m – G1 The Metropolitan, Randwick, September 2023

Irish-bred import who’s been racing very consistently. In his past 11 starts he’s won three and missed a place only twice, one of those happening when he lost his rider. They’ve all been in weaker grade than this, but he’s shown he’s a real trier. Was third at G1 level in The Metropolitan, and got into this race by winning the Archer on Saturday. He now has to manage the quick back-up, which is a very hard thing to do rising to this 3200m marathon, but he’ll appreciate dropping from 56kg to 50kg, and he’s one-for-one at Flemington. Young apprentice jockey on board, and while he’s talented, experience goes a long way in this race. Place chance.

24. TRUE MARVEL

50kg (10)

$91/$20

8yo gelding

53: 8-7-5

$766,340

T: Matthew Smith; J: Ben Thompson

Track: 3: 0-0-0

Best long distance form: 2nd – 3200m – G1 Sydney Cup, Randwick, April 2023; 1st – 3200m – Hamilton (Vic) hurdle, May 2023; 1st – 3800m – Moonee Valley, Hcp, November 2021

This old bloke could run around all day – to wit, his win over just the 3800m a couple of years ago. Almost nabbed a big one when second at huge odds in the Sydney Cup this year, but that’s a long way below this race class-wise, and most of his form is in weaker races. Prefer others, but a lot of rain could help him.

TIPS: 1. VAUBAN; 2. Alenquer; 3. Gold Trip; 4. Without A Fight

BEST LONGSHOTS: Alenquer, Ashton, Serpentine.

THINK. IS THIS A BET YOU REALLY WANT TO PLACE?

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