US plans to deploy intermediate-range missiles in Europe for the first time since the Cold War, as well as hypersonic weapons, risk accelerating an arms race and spiral of escalation between Washington and Moscow, according to proliferation specialists.
The White House announced on Wednesday that it would begin deployments of non-nuclear “long-range fires capabilities” for a US force stationed in Germany in 2026, that will, when fully developed, include the SM-6 and Tomahawk missile systems, and “developmental hypersonic weapons”.
The US’s Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) programme, dubbed “Dark Eagle”, is said to use missiles capable of reaching speeds of Mach 17 with a range of up to 3,000km. Both the Dark Eagle and Tomahawk systems are capable of reaching targets across Russia.
The US announcement follows the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) signed by the US and Russia in 1987, which prohibited both sides from possessing, producing, or testing land-based cruise or ballistic missiles with a range between 500-5,500km.
Former president Donald Trump withdrew from the treaty in 2019, alleging Russian violations. Moscow says it has observed a “voluntary moratorium” on the deployment of missiles previously covered by the treaty.
Russia’s foreign ministry said on Thursday that it had begun work on “counter-measures” in response to the US announcement.
“As we have repeatedly warned, the actions of the US and its satellites to create additional missile threats to Russia will not remain without a proper response from our side,” the ministry said. “The necessary work on preparing compensating countermeasures by Russian specialised agencies was started in advance and is being carried out on a systematic basis.”
President Vladimir Putin warned on 4 July: “If medium and shorter-range missiles of American manufacture appear somewhere, then we reserve the right to act in a mirror manner.”
The move could lead Russia to could deploy nuclear weapons in response, according to Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher in the Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research.
“This will almost certainly lead to Russia declaring a formal end to its moratorium on the deployment of INF-range systems,” he told i. “I think we should expect that Russia will deploy its systems in response. These systems, however, will most certainly be nuclear capable, unlike the US ones. And probably nuclear-only, like the RS-26 ballistic missile.”
“I don’t know how anyone in the US or Nato believes that this will lead to a more secure environment in Europe,” he added.
Jon Wolfstahl, director of global risk at the Federation of American Scientists, warned: “We have recreated one of the most dangerous components of the Cold War in Europe and things will only get worse from here.”
Dmitry Stefanovich, a security analyst at Russian think-tank, the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, said the Kremlin would see the US deployments as a direct threat and respond in kind.
“Given the clearly strategic nature of the US and allied INF-range weapons vis-à-vis Russian targets, I believe that our guys will not bother much with matching European/Asian deployments and go straight after [the US],” he wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
So far, the US has not announced plans to deploy missile systems in any European country other than Germany. The agreement with Berlin was struck after months of top-secret negotiations, according to German news magazine Der Spiegel.
German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, welcomed the announcement, claiming the missiles would resolve a “very serious capability gap in Europe” – although the weapons will be under US rather than Nato command.
Tim Thies, an arms control researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, said it was “striking that Germany is the only host nation” but suggested there could be “strategic or geographic reasons”.
“Most of these capabilities that are to be deployed in Germany could strike targets deep in Russian territory, without being close to Russian territory,” he told i. “So they wouldn’t be as vulnerable as if they were deployed in Poland or the Baltic states.”
The deployment of hypersonic weapons, following Russia’s reported use of hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon missiles in Ukraine, is “definitely another step in an arms race”, the researcher said.
“As Russia has deployed hypersonic missiles, you hear arguments that there is a gap that Nato needs to close,” said Mr Thies. “The hypersonic arms race is in full swing already. The US is putting significant efforts into developing defence systems to intercept new hypersonic missiles that were first developed to overcome our defences.”
The US military announced an end-to-end flight test of a hypersonic missile last month that it described as a “milestone for our nation in the development of this capability”.
But the programme has faced setbacks, with the most recent report to Congress stating: “The Army missed its goal of fielding its first LRHW battery – including missiles – by fiscal year 2023 due to integration challenges.
“Based on current test and missile production plans, the Army will not field its first complete LRHW battery until fiscal year 2025.”
The Dark Eagle programme is more complicated than Russian counterparts but more capable, says Thomas Newdick, an air warfare specialist at military news outlet The War Zone.
“These are really tricky things to develop, so it’s not really a surprise that it has run into some trouble,” he said.
“Dark Eagle involves a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle, which is maybe the trickiest hypersonic weapon to perfect. You have a rocket booster with an unpowered hypersonic boost-glide vehicle on top. The rocket booster propels the hypersonic vehicle to optimal speed and altitude then releases it.”
Dark Eagle missiles are more sophisticated and have a longer range than Russian equivalents, the author added, although little is known about the Zircon.
“I would not be surprised if it’s delayed further but when it does arrive, it’s a problem for Russia,” said Mr Newdick. “So is the Typhon – a ground-based launcher for SM-6 missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles. Having a combination of long-range weapons like this, flying different profiles, makes things that much harder for air defences.”
Russia will respond to the US announcement, and escalation is likely to become more dangerous, he predicted.
“I can only see this adding of new capabilities – quick-strike ballistic and hypersonic missiles – as increasing the level of risk and potential for mistakes or overreaction,” said Mr Newdick.